The Finnish government believes that NATO is the only alternative that can offer Finland collective security right now – but membership can also mean “extensive and unpredictable pressure and risk” on the country.
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“A possible Finnish membership will significantly increase the alliance’s area, double NATO’s border with Russia, and bring the alliance closer to strategically important areas such as Kola and St Petersburg,” the Finnish government wrote in its assessment of the new security situation in Europe following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
But at the same time the government writes this:
“NATO is the only organization for collective defense in the foreseeable future.”
No recommendation
The report does not make any clear recommendations. But the government is urging the Riksdag, the Finnish parliament, for a quick clarification of whether Finland should apply for membership in NATO. This was emphasized by Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto when he presented the report in Helsinki on Wednesday.
– If everything goes as planned, an application can come from Finland well before the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June, Henri Vanhanen, security policy expert and adviser to the Finnish Conservative Party, told VG earlier in April.
Sweden is coming after
The Swedish government will have a similar report ready by the end of May, according to Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. According to Svenska Dagbladet’s sources, Andersson wants that Sweden will become a member of NATO this summer.
– It will be good if we make equal choices, the Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said to her Swedish colleague, when they met in Stockholm on Wednesday.
She believes a Finnish decision will be ready in weeks, not months.
–Mute Russian reaction
In the Finnish report, the government writes that if Finland and Sweden choose to apply at the same time, it will be able to simplify preparedness and mitigate the effect of a possible reaction from Russia:
“If Finland and Sweden both join NATO, the defense arrangements in Northern Europe can be seen in their entirety as part of NATO’s collective defense. Conversely, if only one of the countries joins NATO, it could have consequences for the countries ‘bilateral defense co-operation, and for the countries’ foreign and security policy co-operation “, writes the Finnish government.
Intense travel
In the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland has had intense contacts with a number of NATO countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. There have also been extensive talks between the Nordic countries.
However, the government writes that the United States has not entered into agreements with any European countries – except NATO – on security guarantees.
There is also uncertainty as to whether close Nordic defense co-operation will be able to provide Finland with guarantees if the country chooses to remain non-aligned. Rather, the government believes that Norway, Denmark and Iceland will give priority to coming to the aid of other NATO countries in a more extensive conflict on the European continent.
Deterrence
The most important consequence of a possible NATO membership for Finland “is that Finland becomes part of NATO’s collective defense and is covered by security guarantees according to Article 5. The deterrent effect of the Finnish defense will be significantly greater than now, as it is supported by the Alliance’s overall capabilities” , writes the Government of Finland.
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