Only 1% of users increase the odds of Trump winning on a betting site

As of September 1, the Polymarket betting site has more than 102,000 usersDonald TrumpThe bet is whether he or Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States.

Despite polls showing a close race, Trump’s probability of winning rose to 66.4% on the 23rd, according to polls. A small number of users seems to have a big impact on the win rate.

Almost half of the bets came from 670 power traders, representing 0.7% of all accounts, according to Dune.com blockchain data.

Many of these users are constantly buying and selling to earn a small commission that Polymarket pays ​​​​for the accounts that work as market makers and provide liquidity. These users usually trade on both sides and have little exposure.

If you remove the marketers, all that’s left are the real bettors – users who actually make predictions about elections. Over the past seven weeks, these users have bet $344 million on the presidential election, reducing the odds in Trump’s favor. It is not clear how many of these positions were subsequently closed.

It turns out that 16% of those users’ bets came from just 10 big investors. On October 17, six of these 10 large investors accounted for 37% of the bets. Those people pledged $5.2 million over a 12-hour period, increasing Trump’s chances by about 4 percentage points.

Four big accounts have been particularly active since October 7: Fredi9999, PrincessCaro, Theo4, and Michie. All four accounts are controlled by one user who has French nationality. The time of activity coincided with billionaire Elon Musk posting about polymarkets.

According to Wednesday’s position, those accounts would receive $46 million if Trump wins.

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Original title:Only 1% of Polymarket bettors are increasing Trump preferences: graphic(section)