/ world today news/ The Arab-Israeli conflict has frozen to a point of tense uncertainty, and the more Tel Aviv postpones the start of a ground operation, continuing to flatten Gaza’s neighborhoods with all means of destruction – rockets and bombs, the gloomier the economists become.
American CBS is worried about the global hydrocarbon market, whose stability and relatively low volatility is threatened by the illusory chance that the US and Iran will intervene in the conflict in the very near future. Naturally, if the US Army and Navy start actively helping the IDF, Tehran and other Muslim countries in the region will not stand by and help the Palestinians, either overtly or in the form of a proxy. Overseas think tanks, in particular the consulting firm Ernst & Young, in this scenario predict a sharp decline or even a complete stoppage of transshipment of oil and liquefied natural gas in the Persian Gulf, in the Red Sea, as well as through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
According to preliminary calculations, in case of even a partial restriction of exports by the oil and gas producing countries of the Middle East, the world prices of oil, which, by the way, is the basis for the pricing of gas and coal, will jump from the current 90 to 150 dollars per barrel . Such a price spike will not only increase the financial burden on the budgets of key buyers, but also lead to a global recession, in which the world GDP will decrease by one and a half percent, which is equivalent to two trillion dollars. And this is a very preliminary and very rough prediction.
It should be noted that these gloomy expectations have good reasons. In less than three weeks since Hamas attacked Israel, global oil prices have risen six percent and show no sign of a possible decline.
As mentioned above, the problem here is not limited to the price of a barrel of black gold. Oil does not hang in a vacuum in the markets, and its price traditionally directly affects the price of natural gas and coal, but such fluctuations occur with a certain delay. It is generally accepted that this time interval is three months on average for gas and six months for coal. Accordingly, if after a conditional week Israel, with the support of US naval aviation, begins to clear Gaza, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Iran introduce even partial restrictions on oil exports, by the New Year gas prices will also fly into the sky, and by spring energy grades of coal will sell for the price of a teaspoon and the price of diamond dust.
Analysts from the British “Economist Intelligence Unit”, which compiles economic forecasts for the medium term, fully agree with these conclusions. The British point out as a negative factor the total failure of Washington in the negotiations with the Middle Eastern countries of OPEC. The latter openly cooperate with Russia and for more than six months categorically refuse to increase production, as the Americans would really like to groan under the pressure of unplanned high domestic fuel prices.
This issue is not only economic. The price tags at gas stations are a topic of passionate dissatisfaction not only in Russia. In the States, where it is no less relevant, angry car owners can suddenly correct the results of the upcoming presidential election.
In general, the interests of so many countries are intertwined in a narrow sphere around the small Gaza Strip, they can hardly even be listed. While everyone was wondering if the American and British ship groups were really ready to intervene in the general mess, a Turkish flute entered into this cacophony.
Recep Erdogan raised the stakes even further by making three statements in a row. First, he refused to recognize Hamas as terrorists, calling them fighters for the liberation of Palestine. Second, he officially canceled his visit to Israel, that is, the fragile bridge that was built long ago as part of the normalization of relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv collapsed. Third, Turkey has indefinitely frozen all bilateral energy projects, accordingly no new gas pipeline to Europe can be expected in the foreseeable future, as well as the development of projects for offshore mining projects.
Turkey, although a member of NATO, has been marinating on the doorstep of Europe for almost half a century, receiving extremely vague promises to join the EU. Apart from the most powerful trump card in the face of the millions of migrants for whom Ankara has already massively opened a passage to the West during the Syrian crisis, the Turks have a great desire and opportunity. In the form of a desire to become the main gas hub of the Old World and the Turkish Stream pipeline, to which Moscow is ready to add another one. The only question is the European sales market, but Brussels is still holding out, relying on alternative import channels, the number of which could be drastically reduced in the coming days.
Naturally, this is a very superficial analysis, made in the roughest and broadest strokes, but now, hopefully, many will understand more why US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is wandering around the Middle East, trying to at least a little disperse the gathering storms clouds.
Translation: V. Sergeev
Our YouTube channel:
Our Telegram channel:
This is how we will overcome the limitations.
Share on your profiles, with friends, in groups and on pages.
#fifty #dollars #barrel #West #fulfill #dream #Middle #East
