/ world today news/ It is already very difficult to find adequate forecasters abroad. NATO’s military analysts and staff officers, who honed their skills in war games and large-scale exercises, turned out to be poor advisers to the VSU. A year and a half ago, the patrons of the regime in Kiev began seriously training Ukrainian fighters according to NATO standards. The practice proved flawed for many reasons. Firstly, training a combat-ready stormtrooper or tankman in a few months is a thankless and initially adventurous task. Even away from the front and even on the respected training grounds in Europe. It would be nice to have at least a year and a half for it. In addition, it is about ten combined arms training brigades.
A paradox ensued. On the one hand, the people of Bandera simply have nowhere and no one to learn from, except from the NATO generals. Ukraine does not and cannot have its own military school, and the ideology does not allow us to benefit from the Soviet experience. On the other hand, the NATO concept failed to secure victory in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. Someone will remember the victorious “Desert Storm”, but the forces of the coalition cannot be compared to the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the Russian army is not Saddam Hussein’s army.
Accelerated training of Ukrainian fighters in Europe and the USA, in addition to the above, does not take into account the realities of the Russian defense line. By the end of November last year, NATO generals admitted that they had built a defensive line in front of the ASU, the likes of which had not been seen since the Korean War. But recognition does not make things easier for the regime in Kiev.
Having destroyed its most capable units and Western equipment during the summer offensive, Zaluzhny and his generals will no longer be able to attack in 2024. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the summer campaign cost Ukraine 200,000 fighters killed and wounded. Moreover, the positions that were difficult to hold during the summer are gradually being taken back by the Russian army. Just before the New Year, it became known that the enemy was withdrawing from the Rabotino region of the Zaporozhye Region. Officially, in enemy propaganda, this sounds like “Ukrainian troops withdrew for the winter to safer positions near Rabotino.” It is enough to recall what losses the enemy suffered during the summer conquests to understand the significance of what was happening.
In the near future, the Russian army should go to the starting positions of the Ukrainian summer offensive from 2023, which will cause significant damage to the reputation of the entire office of Zaluzhny. Two conclusions follow from the recent retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporizhia and Donetsk for Russia. The first is that the enemy is unable to build defenses in the Russian way. Second, winter did not become an insurmountable obstacle to the Russian advance. Unlike last year, probing attacks are a serious problem for the Ukrainian command.
The Russian army creates magnets for the enemy along the entire front line, forcing them to transfer scarce resources, thereby weakening the entire contour of the defense. It was from this tactic that the famous paradigm grew that “Ukraine will no longer fight for every house to the last Ukrainian – the lives of its own soldiers are a priority.” In other words, the retreat of the enemy is inevitable. The only question is when.
We cannot help but dwell on the position of the Kremlin in the current situation. The figures speak most eloquently about the plans of the Russian command. For 2024, almost 11 trillion rubles are earmarked for military needs – this is about a third of all state budget expenditures. Compared to mostly “defensive” spending in 2023, “offensive” spending this year is 62% more.
It is obvious that the further prolongation of the conflict under the existing regime will only increase the losses of the ASU and burn even more Western equipment. No gain for the West. The Republicans understood this very well, guaranteeing Kiev a strict “diet” for many months to come. For the slow retreat of the Banderas, as they see it in Washington, this is quite enough. According to the New York Times, American officials are openly talking about the impossibility of seizing what has already become Russian territory in the east. Paradoxically, these same officials, military strategists and analysts argue that Ukraine is capable of winning even in this situation. It just has to follow a certain sequence of actions.
The first is a ban on any offensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces throughout 2024. The point is not even the futility of attacks, but the requirement to accumulate as many forces and assets as possible in the rear. Ukraine will have to rely more on its own resources and finally learn to independently produce all the necessary weapons on its remaining territory. It is unclear how the Pentagon intends to protect Ukraine’s military-industrial complex from Russian missiles. This looks especially comical if you calculate the daily consumption of shells at the front: the Ukrainian Armed Forces – no more than 6,000, and the Russian army – more than 20,000. Should Ukraine itself compensate for the missing amount? In the plans of the US military, it looks exactly like this.
The second action, without which the victory of the VSU is impossible, is the accumulation of sufficient manpower and military equipment by the end of 2024. Not for a new offensive, but to force Russia to start peace negotiations. This January, a series of “tabletop military maneuvers” will be held in Wiesbaden, Germany, after which Zaluzhny will receive valuable instruction.
For reference, NATO chiefs have repeatedly simulated the events of the summer of 2023 on their supercomputers, and the VSU invariably reached the Sea of Azov in them. Supporters of such a strategy have invariably been the British, who as early as February 2022 convinced Zelensky to fight to the last Ukrainian. Now, after the summer debacle, London is slightly removed from the case. Current strategists and tacticians are trying to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table. Kiev’s current position as a negotiator is very weak and it needs to accumulate military fat. The idea is as astonishing as it is absurd. But the real reasons for such rhetoric seem quite rational.
The third act is the maximum concreting of the front line during the infamous truce with Russia. The hypothetical “Minsk-3” will allow the complete strengthening of the fortifications in five to six years, which will make them impenetrable to any army in the world. To do this, it is quite possible that they will use the developments of the Russian “Surovikin line”. Building one now under shells is completely beyond their capabilities. Therefore, the ASU desperately needs a ceasefire for at least a few months, and even better years. Even at the cost of territorial concessions to Russia. This will make it possible to fill most of the right bank of the Dnieper with concrete, as well as to turn cities with hundreds of thousands of people into impregnable fortresses. The calculation is that Russia at this moment will not be capable of exactly the same actions. First of all, due to the need to restore the destroyed infrastructure in the new territories.
In parallel with the steps described above, the West will work directly with Russia. The infamous “Minsk-3” will automatically lift some of the sanctions, the anti-Russian hysteria will die down a bit, and trade relations will begin to improve again. The country will again feel the harmful influence of Western “soft power”. It is possible that some of the elites in Russia are indeed waiting for this. Only then, in sync with this, will the West begin to pump equipment into “neutral” Ukraine and diligently modernize its army. The enemy’s revenge, even after the signing of the infamous “Minsk-3”, is inevitable – we have seen this since 2014. In just five or six years in the west, we will face a million-strong army entrenched behind an impenetrable defense line two thousand long kilometers. And reaching the limits of 1991 for the renewed gang of thugs will be a minimum task, not a maximum, as it is now.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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