With 5 points of difference between Grenoble, 4th and Auxerre and Paris FC, 5th and 6th, we can reasonably think that this year, the title and the rise will be played between the first 4 teams. At the edge of the final sprint, LesViolets.Com offers you a detailed analysis of the end of season calendar for each competitor.
First of all, it goes without saying that if the teams continue overall at their own pace since the 1st day, the ranking will remain the same as the current one, and Troyes and Clermont will go up directly, while Toulouse, Grenoble and Auxerre will compete in the dams. If we take into account, however, the current form, that of the 8 return matches already played, we see that Clermont is running at 2.25 points on average, against 2.13 for Troyes, 2 for our Violets and 1.75 for Grenoble. With this trend, the final classification would remain the same despite everything, Patrice Garande’s men would only increase their lead over the Isérois, but would not be able to catch up with the current top two. Note that it is Paris FC who would steal the last qualifying place for the dams in Auxerre, while at the bottom of the table, Guingamp should play his place in L2 against a National club.
But playing a candidate for the downhill or a club with a soft stomach is not quite the same thing, especially at the end of the season. When the specter of relegation is on your shoulder, the pressure is intense, and you have to play to win, which is not necessarily the qualities of these clubs in danger. At the same time, when you don’t have much to play, the intensity that you will put into the meetings can be significantly less. So, it becomes interesting to take a closer look at the calendars of each candidate to observe what type of clubs each will meet, and to see what results have been obtained against them since the start of the season.
Let’s start by dividing the end of the championship into 3 types of meetings: those against the Top 8, those against the “Soft Belly” and finally those against the candidates for the descent. Over the last 11 games, we get this table for the top 4 in the championship:
Thus, by looking at what types of results each club has had since the start of the season against each type of opponent, we can project a number of points taken by the end of May. For example, the Trojans are doing very well against home against another candidate for the climb (2.33 points / game). By recording these averages of points taken in the table, we obtain this new table:
With all these considerations, Troyes would very easily obtain the title of L2 champion with more than 25 points garnered to reach 80 points, finishing far from his runner-up, Clermont, which would be around 72 points, when Toulouse would finish with around 70 points. .
This confirms that if Toulouse no longer has its fate in hand, and if it wants to go straight up, it will have to wait for a misstep from these opponents, a misstep that could happen during the 35th and 36th days, since it is It is on these dates that we find the only meetings between candidates for the climb: Troyes-Grenoble and Grenoble-Clermont. In addition, it will be necessary to optimize a worrying statistic on the banks of the Garonne: the Violets are clearly in check at the Stadium against possible relegation (0.5 points taken, defeat against Dunkirk and draw against Guingamp). However, Patrice Garande’s men will meet the last 5 of the championship by the end of the season. With Nancy, they are even the last 6, including 4 times at home. This would therefore represent 2 points against these teams, while we could expect at least 10. The reserve of points to overtake Clermont is probably in these matches.
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