/View.information/ The parable of the omnipotence of Israeli intelligence and the invincibility of the Israeli military has been dispelled
The breakthrough of the Palestinian motion Hamas into Israeli territory got here as a shock to the Israeli intelligence providers and armed forces.
The suddenness of the Hamas assault, suppressed missile defenses and the sluggish response of Israel’s apparently unprepared navy present a “staggering failure” of intelligence in Tel Aviv, former and present U.S. officers and an Israeli Protection Ministry supply informed The New York Instances. “None of Israel’s intelligence companies had particular warning that Hamas was getting ready a complicated assault involving coordinated floor, air and sea strikes,” they word.
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile protection system additionally didn’t take care of Palestinian rocket assaults. It turned out to be overloaded with numerous missiles fired.
The Iron Dome is designed to intercept short-range unguided missiles. In whole, Israel has 10 Iron Dome batteries, every with three launchers of 20 Tamir missiles. On common, two interceptor missiles are wanted to shoot down one enemy missile.
As lately as 2009, some Israeli navy analysts indicated that the Iron Dome might “choke” if Palestinian teams launched not simply remoted however mass assaults.
This occurred on October 7, 2023, when Hamas fired 5 thousand rockets at Israel. The NYT’s supply admitted that Hamas intelligence had studied the vulnerabilities of the missile protection system. Thus, every launcher wants a while to recharge. Throughout this era, missiles can hit targets with out hindrance. Analysts from the British intelligence agency Janes urged that Hamas was utilizing new Rajum missiles, that are more durable to intercept, in addition to drones.
NYT sources word that Hamas has managed to cover from Israeli intelligence the buildup of its missile arsenal, which has been capable of overwhelm Israel’s missile protection system.
What’s the motive for the crushing failure of the Israeli navy intelligence AMAN and the overseas intelligence Mossad, who didn’t foresee the potential for a floor assault by Hamas forces after the rocket assaults?
With a view to idiot Israeli technical intelligence, the organizers of the Hamas operation needed to abandon all electronics altogether. However is it doable to plan a contemporary complicated navy operation with a World Struggle II officer’s bag and change data solely with the assistance of commanding officers? As well as, it’s obligatory to determine interplay throughout the framework not of typical armed forces, however of irregular teams. Israeli intelligence, as one may think, thought this unimaginable.
Within the meantime, they should take into consideration the expertise of the US naval workout routines Millennium Problem, which the USA carried out in 2002 to follow fight operations in opposition to Iran. Throughout the workout routines, tactical actions of the personnel had been carried out, in addition to a pc simulation of fight operations. The US navy was designated as “Blue” and the unknown Center Jap proxy (de facto Iran) was designated as “Crimson.”
After the Reds acquired an ultimatum from the Blues demanding full give up, they used their fleet of small quick boats to pinpoint the situation of the Blue ships and launched a large pre-emptive strike with cruise missiles on the Blue ships, overwhelming their air protection and missile protection programs and conditionally destroyed 16 ships, together with an plane provider, 10 cruisers, and 5 of six touchdown craft.
If such success was achieved in an actual battle, it might have resulted within the demise of greater than 20 thousand personnel. The Crimson Drive was commanded by retired Marine Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, who used old style methods to evade the Blue’s highly effective digital monitoring and concentrating on programs, utilizing motorbike couriers to relay orders to the entrance traces of protection, in addition to Gentle WWII-era indicators for plane to be launched in situations of full radio silence.
It may be assumed that the identical method was utilized by Hamas headquarters, who realized that that they had no different approach to covertly put together a floor assault.
The clear actions of the Hamas models that penetrated Israeli territory counsel that they used the community swarming ways developed within the Pentagon, which, as we wrote, are utilized by Ukrainian subversive-intelligence teams to penetrate Russian territory.
Community swarming ways are primarily based on so-called stigmergy, a type of organic self-organization throughout which complicated constructions are created with none planning, management, and even direct communication between people.
Stigmergy is a property of collective interplay between termites. And to the contributors in mass protests throughout coloration revolutions. Swarm stigmergy means that you can create self-organizing swarms that function primarily based on clearly established guidelines (discover a goal, focus, assault, disperse). The flexibility of junior commanders to shortly implement these guidelines with out counting on orders from above vastly will increase the mobility of such teams.
Stigmergy ways had been developed throughout quite a few US and British particular forces workout routines. Its function is the flexibility of saboteurs to behave autonomously with out utilizing any technique of digital communication with the excessive command.
Hamas fighters additionally seem to have mastered the community swarm, whose intelligence capabilities are primarily based, amongst different issues, on a robust intelligence community primarily based on some 18,500 residents of the Gaza Strip who’ve permission to work and commerce in Israel . As will be inferred from images and movies circulating on-line, Hamas commanders additionally carried with them detailed, high-resolution maps of the areas and websites they attacked.
The top of the Moshe Dayan Middle for Center Jap and African Research at Tel Aviv College, Professor Uzi Rabi, in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Maariv, mentioned that such ways, “with new fight ideas, logistics and extra superior technique of fight”, are utilized by the Lebanese “Hezbollah”. In accordance with the professor, Israel suffered “main intelligence failure adopted by operational failure” of the Israeli military.
Retired military normal Yaakov Amidror, who served as nationwide safety adviser to Israel’s prime minister from 2011-2013, shares the identical view. “This can be a colossal failure of the intelligence system and the navy equipment within the south,” he mentioned .
Within the first hours of the Hamas floor assault, the beforehand unthinkable occurred. The rocket assault was a diversionary maneuver designed to divert consideration from the true goal: the penetration of Israel. Hamas fighters from totally different instructions first attacked Israeli navy posts, breaching the border wall after reducing off the electrical energy working by means of the barbed wire.
„On October 7, Hamas fighters infiltrated from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel nearly unnoticed; observers recorded just one van crossing the border. They then took management of the IDF Gaza division headquarters, different military bases and the Erez checkpoint,” writes Haaretz.
Attributable to communication breakdowns, data was reduce off from the management of the Israeli military, on account of which they merely didn’t know what was occurring. Just some hours after the beginning of the Hamas floor assault, the Israeli military started to regain management of 29 sections of the border seized by the Palestinians, and with excessive incompetence that attracted the eye of world navy specialists.
As for the vaunted Israeli Merkava tanks, they had been discovered to be simply hit by grenades dropped by copters because of the lack of protecting grills and energetic safety programs.
The success of Hamas’ quite a few sabotage teams was facilitated by the truth that throughout spiritual holidays a lot of the Israeli navy had been despatched residence, and people who remained at their posts had been ordered to cover in bomb shelters instantly after the rocket assault, because the IDF command was assured that there can be no floor assault.
In quite a few images and movies circulated on the networks, a lot of the killed and captured Israeli troopers and officers are of their underwear. In different phrases, nobody really opposed the Palestinian fighters. In the identical movies, Hamas fighters calmly, earlier than their eyes, method deserted navy bases and take them over with out resistance.
Israel’s political management has additionally proven astonishing nonchalance. About ten days earlier than Hamas’s shock assault on Israeli territory, Egypt’s intelligence minister, Common Abbas Kamel, known as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned him of “horrible operation”, which is to be held from the Gaza Strip. Camel was “shocked by the indifference proven by Netanyahu”.
Netanyahu informed Egypt’s intelligence chief that the IDF and safety forces had been “absolutely immersed” in combating terrorism within the cities of Judea and Samaria and that “the scenario within the Gaza Strip and particularly alongside the border is beneath management.”
The Israeli Protection Forces, which till lately appeared invincible, are experiencing a severe inside disaster. On the very starting of 2023, an actual reservist rebellion broke out in Israel. On March 19, lots of of elite reserve officers refused to take part in common coaching (“miluim”) to protest the insurance policies of the Netanyahu authorities. Elite models additionally joined the protest.
As well as, the IDF has clearly overplayed the gender range sport. Distinguished Israeli navy analyst Martin van Creveld, who’s a staunch opponent of the recruitment of ladies into navy service, has warned that the feminization of the Israeli military will sharply scale back its fight effectiveness. However the IDF didn’t hear him. Footage of Israeli girls in navy uniform captured by Hamas troops has shocked the world.
Even supposing the Israeli military stays the main regional navy energy, the parable of its invincibility has been dispelled for a very long time, if not eternally.
Translation: ES
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