On the 13th anniversary of the February 17 uprising: Libya is still in the grip of warlords

Rashid Khashana – The demand for firearms and ammunition is increasing in Libya, with the increasing number of paramilitary groups, which gives more commercial opportunities for arms smugglers to the Sahel and Sahara countries, starting from Libya.

The Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Antonio Taiani, reduced the political exits from the Libyan crisis to Turkey and Egypt sitting at the same table, because the former has influence over Tripoli and the latter has influence over Cyrenaica (the East), adding an important sentence by saying, “We also need to involve Qatar and the Emirates.” ». There is no doubt that the battles that were fought in Libya, over the course of twelve years, were fueled by the conflict between regional and international powers over the country’s wealth and spheres of influence.
It is clear that the continued flow of Libyan gas to southern Italy is Rome’s top priority, now and in the future. This explains Tayani’s statements in Tripoli, when he stressed that Italy must protect its interests, adding, “but also play a role in favor of stability and growth.” Italy had reached important contracts with Libya to develop gas inspection work, between the “Eni” group and the “National Oil Corporation” on the 28th of last month.
The volume of gas exported from Libya to Italy annually ranges between 12 and 14 billion cubic feet, according to Eni Group President Claudio Descalzi. However, gas flows are characterized by fluctuation. The volume of exports also declined due to the instability of the security and political situation and the high internal Libyan demand for gas.
In this context, the Italians pledged to work to bring the Libyan parties into dialogue with each other. The head of the National Unity Government, Abdul Hamid Al-Dabaiba, confirmed that Italy “is working to stabilize Libya, through its efforts with neighboring countries.” This position derives its importance from the congruence between the Italian and American positions on the course of the Libyan crisis. Washington entrusted the Libyan file to Rome, after its temporary withdrawal from Libya, following the killing of its ambassador at the American consulate in Benghazi in 2012 and before its gradual return to it as of 2017.
Not far from this position came the statement of a member of the Libyan Presidential Council, Musa Al-Koni, who expressed the Council’s “happiness” that America is leading the political track in Libya, “because it is the only country to which everyone complies,” according to what he said, citing the visit of the Director of the CIA, William Burns recently, to both Tripoli and Benghazi, with Al-Koni confirming that America will not intervene militarily in Libya, under any circumstances. He attributed this to the fact that it “enjoys broad influence and relies on it to manage crises.”

Battalions instead of the army

The flow of medium and heavy weapons into Libya is considered one of the major obstacles to the political solution, as the late leader Muammar Gaddafi’s abandonment of the Libyan army, after his war in Chad, and its replacement with battalions led by his sons, paved the way for the formation of armed groups that impose their authority on competing security islands in various regions. Regions and cities.
According to United Nations experts, in a report recently issued by its Office on Drugs and Crime, the demand for firearms and ammunition is increasing in Libya, with the increasing number of paramilitary groups, which gives more commercial opportunities for arms smugglers to the Sahel and Sahara countries, starting from Libya. The destination of these weapons is often Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Chad.
Hence the International Crisis Group’s call on the member states of the African Union to support the option of holding elections directly, that is, without going to form another government, considering that this option holds greater hope for resolving the crisis. Among other recommendations taken by the African Union, before holding its summit, which opened yesterday in Addis Abeba, is the need to overcome the division between Western countries, which want to hold elections directly, and Egypt, which prefers to form a new government loyal to it, more than the current government. This appeared, for example, in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry’s insistence on boycotting the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the unity government, Naglaa Mangoush.

One mission for the bear

It is important to point out here that America is one of the most demanding of going directly to the elections. Its envoy, William Burns, addressed the head of the unity government, Al-Dabaiba, saying, “You have one task before you, which is to hold the elections and nothing else,” according to what is being circulated in Tripoli. The Crisis Group also called for supporting UN envoy Abdullah Bathily and encouraging him to develop a road map to resolve the crisis, instead of launching a new initiative. In a remarkable development, Libyan-Emirati relations achieved a major turn after the visit of the Prime Minister of the Government of National Accord, Al-Dabaiba, to Abu Dhabi, last Wednesday, accompanied by a high-level delegation, after the UAE was the strongest link in an alliance that targeted the former Government of National Accord in Tripoli, headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj. The alliance included Egypt, Russia, and the Emirates, in addition to France. There is no doubt that Al-Dabaiba’s visit to the Emirates was a sign of an Emirati effort to bring the enemy brothers in the Libyan conflict closer together.
Moreover, the visit carried indications of a shift in bilateral relations, after it was the main financier of Haftar’s forces, which attacked Tripoli on April 4, 2019. It was clear from Al-Dabaiba’s words in Abu Dhabi, Tripoli’s keenness to open up prospects for economic cooperation between the two countries. In various economic and investment fields. Al-Dabaiba confirmed that he agreed with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to operate direct flights between the two countries, open visas to Libyan citizens, and return the UAE embassy to work from Tripoli. The UAE Ambassador to Libya, Mohammed Al Shamsi, who recently presented his credentials to the President of the Presidential Council, Mohammed Al Manfi, stressed the activation of the joint supreme committee between the two countries, and granting Libyans electronic visas to the UAE, without the need to travel to a third country to obtain them.

The disintegration of the Quadruple Alliance?

The resumption of Libyan-Emirati relations constituted one of the prominent strategic changes in the region, because it is a sign of the disintegration of the Egyptian-Russian-Emirati-French quadripartite alliance, and it is also the marginalization of Major General Haftar, who was described by the Emirati media as “Field Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan Armed Forces.” This turn coincides with the Libyans’ celebration of the twelfth anniversary of the 2011 uprising that toppled the regime of the late leader Muammar Gaddafi. The UAE embraced an important number of men from the former regime and helped them politically and financially. This explains its defense of including some symbols of the former regime in government, on the grounds that the supporters of February, or those who were called “revolutionaries,” do not have sufficient experience to manage the affairs of the state.
It is most likely that breaking the ice between Tripoli and Abu Dhabi was based on a number of settlements and trade-offs between the two capitals, which began some time ago. Some features of the settlements emerged through Al-Dabaiba’s agreement to dismiss the former head of the National Oil Corporation, Mustafa Sanallah, and name Farhat Bin Qaddara in his place, a name nominated by Khalifa Haftar and approved by the UAE. The swap also includes a cabinet reshuffle in Dabaiba’s government, in agreement with Khalifa Haftar, and under the auspices of the UAE, under which Haftar’s camp will likely be granted the possibility of appointing the ministers of finance, planning, defense, and perhaps foreign affairs, along with the two deputy prime ministers for the south and east.

Trade-offs

In theory, these trade-offs will contribute to maturing the necessary conditions for holding presidential and parliamentary elections, but in reality there are various obstacles that are still obstructing the process, including that the international position is still not unified on several issues, including the nature of the elections, whether they will be parliamentary only, to create a legislative council that is in turn elected. As head of state, or will it be presidential to choose a president to be named head of government? Here, Presidential Council member Musa Al-Koni believes that Libya needs an elected president and not a parliament or presidential council. Al-Koni believes that the national unity government has a central mission, which is to secure and protect the elections, “but everyone is obstructing the holding of the elections,” he said. Al-Koni suggested that it is likely that none of the names present on the current scene will win the elections.
It is likely that UN envoy Abdullah Bathily carries these options in his bag as part of a series of consultations with local and international parties, ahead of his briefing before the Security Council scheduled for the twenty-seventh of this month. For example, the Germans adhere to combining parliamentary and presidential elections, according to what German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock told Bathily. The Germans also insist on holding the elections before the end of this year, and not next year as some suggest.

New armor

Moreover, the Libyan government is preparing to receive armored vehicles from the Emirates, as its president, Al-Dabaiba (who is at the same time the Minister of Defense), submitted a letter to the United Nations Sanctions Committee imposed on Libya, asking it to allow the receipt of 45 armored vehicles from the Emirates, despite the ban. Weapons imposed on Libya. But experts following the Libyan file confirm that Haftar’s ambitions are more than what Dabaiba can offer. They believe that the size of the agreements has not yet achieved a settlement, as Haftar, who wants to seize everything, still wants much more than what Dabaiba can give, for fear of antagonizing the armed groups in western Libya, which are defending him and members of his government. Haftar also continues to use the presence of the Bashagha government to put pressure on Dabaiba, and open parallel financing mechanisms, by forcing banks, located in eastern Libya, to accumulate debts. The natural consequence of this tactic is the entrenchment of the institutional division between eastern and western Libya.

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