On Sight Satire-Kisses from Russia [Par Top Sylla] – Conakryinfos.com

We kinda expected that. Will Bazoum, who was until now at the head of Niger, be carried away in turn by the domino effect?

After Bamako, Conakry and Ouagadougou, it is in Niamey that “the great mute” has just given voice. On a background of noise of boots. And nothing suggests that the series will stop there. We could even have fun guessing the sequel, although it is still difficult, for the moment, to predict who will be next. Unless…

Some who claim to know a ray of it, these famous “specialists” of Africa, believe that a coup d’etat can be considered successful if it goes beyond seven days, when others advance the one month deadline

Be that as it may, what is tending to become an epidemic in this part of Africa is today a real cause for concern.

Not just in presidential palaces, where the adrenaline must reach stratospheric levels these days. But also and especially in the West. In particular at the Élysée, where a “defence and security council” was held urgently on the subject. Like what, what is happening in Niger concerns France to the highest degree.

It is true that there is enough to grind the meninges under Marianne’s Phrygian cap. France, which maintains execrable relations with the Malian junta, is not in the odor of sanctity in Burkina Faso either. With the fall of Bazoum, she would lose a weighty ally (if not the only one) in this area of ​​a Sahel infested with terrorists who do not wish her anything but good.

Will the Barkhane Force be driven out, as it was in Bamako and Ouagadougou? Is the contract for the exploitation of huge uranium deposits by the company ORANO (formerly AREVA) compromised in this country which is the world’s fourth largest producer? Will the new authorities turn their backs on the former colonial power to throw themselves into the arms of the Russian bear?

Macron has already turned off the development aid and budget support taps.

Other times, other mores: it is out of the question for the Foreign Legion to jump on Niamey, as it did in the past in Kolwezi to fly to the aid of the dictator Mobutu. Although nothing of the kind is to be excluded, if Paris considers that the security of its nationals is threatened. With the presence of Barkhane’s soldiers on the scene, the temptation to offer them an opportunity to stretch their muscles would be great.

For the time being, it is rather some ECOWAS presidents who are advocating a military option in order to get their comrade Bazoum out of trouble. In addition to a panoply of particularly severe sanctions, which should have nothing to do with those which proved ineffective, or which were simply not applied in the cases of Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.

Would the threat to use force be a bluff, or a real desire to repeat the adventure of ECOMOG (West African force) in Liberia in 1990? Even with Nigeria as the spearhead, ECOWAS’ leading military power (4th on the continent behind Egypt, Algeria and South Africa)*, such an operation, if ever launched, would be anything but. a time of pleasure. Without forgetting the possible collateral victims and a possible involvement (even indirect) of certain “natural” allies of the putschists. One could add to this the hostility of a large part of the population towards ECOWAS, whose positions are perceived as dictated by President Macron.

A beautiful chaos in perspective, one could have exclaimed, if it was not the dramatic side that it could take on! The various jihadist groups could not have dreamed of better and must already be rubbing their hands.

While a week-long ultimatum was given to General Abderahmane Tchiani and his comrades to put the former president back in the saddle, many questions arise.

Why are the reactions of the French president and certain heads of state of the regional organization so variable? Why not put all the putschists in the same boat? Wouldn’t President Macron’s questionable attitude instead give food for thought to those who stir up anti-French sentiment?

While the days are ticking away and uncertainty reigns more than ever in Niamey, we must recognize, unfortunately for the Nigerian emulators of Goïta, Doumbouya and Traoré, that this one really appears to be the coup d state of too much. If it passes, it is ECOWAS itself that risks passing away, and the entire region of finding itself in a spiral of instability and insecurity with unforeseeable consequences.

In this complex game that looks like a game of liar poker, France is betting big. Faced with delicate choices, the Gallic rooster risks losing even more feathers in terms of image. At a time when some observers believe they are witnessing a competition between French and Russians on the continent.

Even if he doesn’t have much to do with the intrigue unfolding in Niger, Putin would perhaps like to send the boss of the Élysée his good kisses from Russia.

With a mysterious little crooked smile that Rasputin himself would certainly not have denied.

Top Sulla