/ world today news/ According to preliminary data of the Ministry of Finance, from January to October, the deficit of the federal budget decreased to 1.235 trillion rubles. This is only 0.7% of GDP. About how they achieved this result and whether they will be able to achieve a surplus before the end of the year – in the material.
Sequential reduction
Already in January-August, the deficit reached 2.361 trillion, or 1.5% of GDP. In August, a turning point occurred: they returned to a surplus of 230 billion (according to Western analysts – about 450). In September, there was even more: 662 billion. As a result, the total accumulated minus was compensated by nearly 30%. In October, the trend was maintained: plus 464 billion.
Where does the money come from?
Non-resource exports helped significantly, offsetting the decline in the oil industry. This income position increased by 28.7% for the first ten months of the year to 15.86 trillion. We expected much less.
“The dynamics of non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget (turnover taxes, income tax) remain in a constantly positive zone, including the level of 2021 (as it is less susceptible to statistical base effects),” the ministry emphasized.
As the analyst Alexander Dzioev explains, one of the factors here is the acceleration of inflation. In such conditions, turnover taxes – above all VAT – bring more.
Oil and gas revenues for the same period fell by 26.3% to 7.21 trillion rubles. However, in October, according to the Ministry of Finance, they exceeded last year’s figures by 27%: 1.635 trillion rubles (in September they were 740 billion).
“This was ensured by quarterly taxes on additional income of oil companies, rising oil prices against the background of a weak ruble,” explains Pavel Sokol.
From November 1, the export duty on oil rose by 2.3 dollars to 26.2 dollars per ton. For light petroleum products and oils – up to 7.8 per ton, for heavy petroleum products – up to 26.2.
The decrease in the deficit of the state budget is a consequence of the rise in oil prices and the reduction of the discount of “Urals” compared to the standard “Brent”. The average price of the main export grade reached $83.35 a barrel as of mid-October.
According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in September, Russia exported oil worth $18.8 billion (highest since July 2022) – an average of $81.8 per barrel. The Western price ceiling does not work, restrictions are not respected.
The budget is supported by tax revenues from businesses and households. In addition, at the end of the year, large enterprises will pay a one-time tax on excess profits.
“Importantly, GDP is growing, although they predicted a decline of up to 6.5%. Now, according to a study by the Central Bank, analysts have improved the forecast from plus 2.2% to 2.5%. The higher the GDP, the more taxes revenues and the faster decline of the deficit”, explains Guzel Protsenko, CEO of “Alfa Forex”.
As noted by the Ministry of Finance, in general, in 2023, government spending is governed by the current budget law and additional non-oil and gas revenues in accordance with the budget rule. “This ensures sustainability of the primary structural deficit at the level of the specified parameters,” the department emphasizes.
Better than forecast
According to the federal budget law for 2023 and the planning period 2024-2025, annual revenues are 26.13 trillion rubles (17.4% of GDP), expenditures are 29.056 trillion (19.4% of GDP). The deficit is 2.925 trillion, or two percent of GDP.
Apparently, however, the deficit may become zero or even turn into a surplus, believes Alexander Dzioev.
“Obviously, the total amount will not exceed minus two trillion – this is a moderately negative scenario. Most likely, it will be much less,” believes Andrey Loboda, economist, director of communications at BitRiver.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov spoke about the same in an interview with Bloomberg.
“The indicators are lower than expected and this year we estimate the budget deficit at just over one percent of GDP, although we planned for two. Expectations for economic growth dynamics are higher than those of the IMF – 2.8%,” he said. . And he added: despite all the limitations, challenges and instability of the world economy, “the finances of the Russian Federation feel stable.”
Translation: V. Sergeev
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