It is theoretically possible that restrictive measures will be needed this fall as the population’s immunity to other respiratory viruses, such as the flu and the RS virus, has declined due to corona restrictions. This is what OMT member and virologist of Amsterdam UMC Menno de Jong says in a new Corona Q&A on AT5. “We have to look at it closely. Also when relaxing and completely going wild within society from November.”
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Now that the vaccination rate for corona in the Netherlands continues to rise, the main concern is not a peak in hospital admissions and deaths from Covid-19, but because of other respiratory viruses. “Theoretically, it is possible that measures will be needed this fall. So we really need to see how the other viruses are doing. We have to keep our finger on the pulse”, says De Jong.
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As far as corona is concerned, the OMT member is less concerned about the autumn. ”The vaccines are actually quite effective against the Delta variant. If we really let go of everything in November as hoped, then a number of other respiratory viruses such as the flu and the RS virus will come around the corner. They can also spread again. The population’s immunity to these viruses has also declined. We may have a major flu epidemic, or one of the rs virus.”
“We must continue to look at what happens to the other respiratory viruses, even if corona only causes a small wave in hospitals.”
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This summer there was a huge peak of children with the RS virus in hospitals. “That’s bizarre,” says De Jong. “It’s a sign that immunity has waned. We must continue to look at what happens to the other respiratory viruses, even if corona only causes a small wave in hospitals. ”
Infections
After a huge peak this summer due to excessive relaxation, the infections have been stable for about two weeks now. In Amsterdam there are now an average of about 200 to 250 infections per day. De Jong: ”The graph shows that the number of infections has fallen almost as fast as it had risen. It shows that targeted measures really work. The enormous increase in infections last month has not caused an overstrained situation in hospitals, that is the effect of vaccinations. Of course it remained exciting for a while, because nothing has been completely predictable in the past 1.5 years. That is why the measures really had to be taken.”
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Whether the infections can still be lower without additional measures remains to be seen. “A lot of people are now on holiday and we can already see that in the infections. About twenty percent of the infections are contracted by people on holiday. We may not be able to see where we can end up until after the summer holidays. We also have to look closely at what happens by opening the schools, as we heard in Friday’s press conference,” says the virologist.
Schools open again
He continues: ”Of course we are taking a risk with opening the schools, but I think it is a legitimate risk. It is good that we are doing all kinds of relaxation in a more phased manner and not all at once, like before the summer. We can now first see what will happen in the schools. Vaccination coverage has also increased and increased even more at the end of September. Then everyone who wants to is fully vaccinated. In the first three weeks of September, the young people go to school and that group was also the reason for the enormous peak this summer. We have to look at that before we take the next step. There is a risk and that is the reason not to do everything at once.”
As far as the OMT member is concerned, a new high peak must be prevented, even if everyone has been able to get his or her vaccine. “We have to realize that the vaccinations prevent hospitalizations and deaths, but you see a shift in the severity of the infections. They become less serious and that will lead to a greater burden on general practitioners and paramedical care. You also see more people with lung Covid because of the infections.”
The fact that the vaccination rate is not equally high everywhere can lead to local outbreaks. Only fifty percent have been fully vaccinated in Southeast and New West. “That could lead to more admissions to local hospitals. It doesn’t have to mean that it will become a problem for the entire country or region. They are pockets of people and populations that are less likely to be vaccinated. The Amsterdam Municipal Health Service is doing its best to increase the vaccination rate,” says De Jong.
He concludes: ”I recently spoke to an employee of the GGD who had been in contact with an imam. On the same day, five hundred people from his monitor were vaccinated. There are still opportunities to increase the vaccination rate there.”
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