Inflation in August “ran” by 3% and olive oil was more expensive by 49.1%. The big question is where the prices of the “green gold” are expected to fluctuate in the winter with the first estimates showing a de-escalation.
Reduced stocks at the end of the marketing season (2023/24) are expected to be marginally sufficient as a “bridge” for the start of fresh olive oils of the new harvest with the harvest time starting at the end of September and beginning of October.
If the growing season is not disrupted by unexpected weather events, prices are expected to decline, especially as the oil mills, trade and packaging industry reservoirs refill after December 2024.
The big “bet” for the new year
The main determining factor for the price of olive oil is expected to prove to be consumption. In the last two trading seasons, the jump in olive oil prices led a significant part of consumption, between 30 and 40%, to switch to seed oils or even to limit olive oil consumption.
The estimated olive oil production of the 2024/25 harvest may reach 3,000 or even 3,200 (quantities in thousands of tons) on a global scale, significantly higher than 2023/24 which did not exceed 2,500.
Meanwhile, another critical factor has to do with production.
This winter it is expected to be increased compared to last year with our country recording one of the lowest productions of all time, which barely approached 150,000 tons. According to olive producers, this winter’s olive oil production is expected to be higher than last year, but not at the levels that were previously predicted, which were about 250,000 tons.
Price drop even below 10 euros
The general manager of the Association of Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industries, Giorgos Oikonomou, emphasized (Ertnews) that “the quantity we expect is of the order of 230,000 tons, greatly increased compared to last year, which will, as expected, affect the prices at the level of producer”.
Based on the existing data, this year’s production in the countries of the European south is expected to exceed last year’s by 50% to 100%, dragging down the prices which in a reasonable period of time could fall, according to food retail executives, from 12 to 13 euros which is currently below 10 euros from November onwards.
#Olive #oil #Estimates #winter #prices
