A Reuters analysis of ship tracking data showed that the movement of oil and fuel tankers in the Red Sea was stable in December, although many container ships changed their routes due to attacks by the Houthi movement in Yemen. The attacks led to a sharp rise in shipping costs and insurance premiums, but their impact on oil flows was less than feared as shipping companies continued to use the main east-west corridor. The Houthis, who said they were targeting ships heading to Israel, attacked shipments of largely non-oil goods. The additional costs have not made much difference to most shipping companies so far, because the cost of using the Red Sea is still more affordable than sending goods around Africa. But the situation is worth monitoring as some oil companies such as BP and Equinor shift shipments to the longer route. Experts said that increased shipping costs would likely increase US crude exports to some European buyers. “We haven’t really seen the disruption to tanker traffic that everyone was anticipating,” said Michelle Wiese-Bockman, a shipping analyst at Lloyd’s List. The competing ship-tracking service Kepler monitored an average of 236 ships crossing the entire Red Sea and Gulf of Aden region daily in December, which is slightly more than the daily average of 230 ships in November. West-to-east diversions affected some European fuel oil and gasoline shipments to the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and East Africa.
