Oil prices rise as traders assess the impact of Trump and the Fed’s decision

rose Oil prices Tracking stock market gains, traders try to digest competing narratives about how leadership affects… Donald Trump Air Souq Oil raw

West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.9% to near $72 a barrel, helped by a weak dollar and rising stocks, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose to settle just below $76.

Citigroup said Trump’s presidency could be very bearish for crude oil prices, due to expectations of increased production and new tariffs that could further slow China’s economy. Others, including Standard Chartered, say oil explorers may ignore Trump’s call for more drilling.

At the same time, many traders are preparing for the American crackdown on Iran through sanctions, and the possibility of conflict in the Middle East. The Trump administration’s influence on Russian barrels is another geopolitical factor. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on Thursday and said his proposals regarding Ukraine deserve attention.

“There are a lot of forces against it,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING Group. He explained: “On the upside, tougher sanctions on Iran are possible, and a further increase in US GDP growth in 2025. However, the strength of the dollar, and the prospects for more oil rents and gas on federal land. , they are worse.”

Controversial factors

Crude has been largely restrained since mid-October, even in the face of conflicting factors. The senior trader at Vitol Group said that although the market seems to be slightly bearish next year, it is too early to be sure that there will be an oversupply.

“Of course there is some concern about balance for 2025; that’s what’s driving the market,” CEO Russell Hardy said at the Asia Commodity Summit in Singapore, noting there was room for supply growth in the United States, Guyana and Brazil.

However, he said that the market is “not in bad shape”, as crude and some petroleum products are structured “back to back”where closer futures contracts are trading at a higher level than more distant contracts, indicating strong demand.

Weather wise, Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba with Category 3 winds, although it is now expected to weaken. The storm is expected to move away from large offshore oil facilities.