According to the forecast, even with the assumption that Iranian exports will recover in July, Brent prices will still reach the $ 80 mark by the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs said recovery in demand in developed markets will offset the recent blow to consumption caused by the coronavirus and the likely slower recovery in South Asia and Latin America.
According to him, global demand could rise by 4.6 million barrels per day by the end of the year, with most of the increase likely in the next 3 months.
“Mobility is growing rapidly in the United States and Europe, as vaccinations accelerate, restrictions are lifted, and freight and industrial activity also grows,” the investment bank said in a note.
Oil prices fell last week after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the United States was ready to lift sanctions on Tehran’s oil, banking and shipping sectors.
Oil made up for some of those losses on Monday, as a potential problem arose in reopening a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that could boost oil supplies. The price of Brent oil rose 1.6% to $ 67.5, WTI – to $ 64.6.
The bank also expects the Organization of the Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a group known as OPEC +, to offset any increase in Iranian production by halting its production increase for two months in the second half of 2021.
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