The oil price is back above 79 dollars a barrel after drama in the Middle East.
Illustration image. Photo: SAUL LOEB / AFPPublished: Published:
Less than 20 minutes ago
On Monday, several large shipping companies announced that they are avoiding the Red Sea. It happens after yet another Norwegian ship was attacked.
At the same time, several shipping shares are rising on the Oslo Stock Exchange, and the price of oil has climbed throughout the day.
North Sea oil (burnt spot) trades for 79.03 dollars a barrel at 15:45. It’s up about three percent, or more than $2.2, since midnight.
During the day, the price was at its highest since 4 December.
– 2024 will be a messy year
Oil analyst at SEB, Bjarne Schieldrop, says the oil price could have a major impact if the transport options from important exporters in the Middle East are disrupted.
– If there is trouble there, huge volumes will be stopped. If you lose really large volumes, the price will vary by several hundred percent, says Schieldrop.
In the short term, he believes that the price is primarily affected by speculators who have shorted Shorting means selling a number of shares you have borrowed at today’s price, in the hope that the price will fall before you have to give them back. Should the share price fall during that period, you will profit from the trade. But if the price goes up, you will lose money.oil. In the longer term, longer transport times will affect the oil price the most.
– So far there have been no major delays, but that effect will certainly come quite immediately. It takes much longer to travel around the whole of Africa.
Oil analyst at SEB Bjarne Schieldrop Photo: Lise Åserud / NTB
Schieldrop believes that there are several factors that have influenced the price of oil recently. He mentions, among other things, the dollar exchange rate, the credibility of the outcome of the OPEC meeting at the end of November and the signals that the interest rate peak in the USA has been reached.
But he says the biggest catalyst is the geopolitical situation.
– We should expect that 2024 will be a turbulent year geopolitically. It is difficult to say exactly what will happen, but we believe that OPEC is holding a steady course with a price of 85 dollars.
Unrest in the Red Sea
Several large shipping companies have announced during Monday that they will stay away from the Red Sea. On the same day, the US military reported that the Tanker Swan Atlantic was attacked in the area.
The Yemeni Houthi militia has claimed responsibility for the attack, Bloomberg and Reuters write.
The ship is owned by Norwegian Inventor Chemical Tankers.
The ships that pass the Suez Canal must also pass through the Red Sea. The area is one of the most important main arteries of world trade.
The Norwegian Shipping Association also estimates that at any given time there are around 40 ships in the area with a Norwegian connection.
2023-12-18 15:03:01
#Oil #prices #rise #unrest #Red #Sea #messy #year
