Oil prices rose once again last week, marking their eighth consecutive week of increases. Tensions remain palpable in Ukraine and the surprise drop in US inventories, which fell again in two weeks, continues to support oil prices. On the other hand, buyers must now come to terms with the relaunch of negotiations around Iranian nuclear power, where Washington seems ready to make concessions in order to reach an agreement with Tehran. The possible return of Iranian oil would be synonymous with an improved supply of nearly 2 million barrels per day, which represents a real breath of fresh air in a tight market due to the dynamics of demand for crude. The European benchmark, Brent from the North Sea, is trading around 95.7 USD, against 94.5 USD for the barrel of WTI.
Initially penalized by high inflation figures, the barbaric relic has regained height due to heightened tensions on the geopolitical front between Russia and Ukraine. The mechanism behind the inflation data is simple: rising consumer prices must push the Federal Reserve to act quickly on its key rates, which impacts the yield curve with a yield on the T-Bond now above the bar 2%. Real yields have also increased, which penalizes gold, which, by definition, does not deliver any yield. In terms of prices, you will have to pay 1850 USD to buy an ounce of gold, against 23.70 USD for the silver equivalent. The atmosphere is still just as favorable on the side of industrial metals, which are continuing their march forward, in particular thanks to the good Chinese economic statistics. Credit growth accelerated in the country in January. Copper is thus trading above 10,000 USD per metric ton, nickel is progressing to 23,700 USD, tin is advancing full steam ahead at 44,185 USD, as is aluminum at 3,200 USD.
Regarding agricultural commodities, the price of soybeans continues to rise in Chicago, supported by more pessimistic forecasts from the USDA, which once again revised downwards its estimates of world stocks due to poor weather conditions in South America. South. Corn also gained ground at 646 cents a bushel while the price of wheat stabilized at 776 cents. Note the surge in lumber prices, which gained more than 20% in five sessions. The price of lumber remains particularly volatile due to supply disruptions, which particularly affect Canadian production sites, which are struggling to ship their production to the United States.
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