Oil costs and conflicting knowledge – Al-Ittihad Information

Oil markets are dominated by conflicting info and knowledge that present the depth of the battle, which has crossed its business and financial boundaries and has turn out to be concerned in extremely influential geopolitical calculations. , reminiscent of sanctions imposed on multiple oil producing nation, in addition to. Russian-Ukrainian conflict and battle within the Center East.

The adverse statements and studies issued by the Worldwide Power Company, which replicate the pursuits of consuming international locations, proceed, because it just lately stated, “Oil provides have reached their restrict highest but in 2030, and that demand for oil will lower by 25% in the identical 12 months, which can result in a big decline in costs.” »! It additionally lowered the dimensions of the rise in international demand for oil to 2 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months, earlier than the rise decreases to only 800 thousand barrels per day in 2026!

However, the response of OPEC and OPEC + got here shortly and clearly by way of completely different statements from these of the Worldwide Power Group Haitham Al-Ghais, Secretary-Common of OPEC, stated that “the assertion of the Power Group is harmful and never it isn’t based mostly on. info and can hurt shoppers,” explaining the group’s earlier signature errors, reminiscent of their predictions through which they stated demand for gasoline would peak in 2019 , however the reverse was the case, because the demand for gasoline arrived. larger ranges than final 12 months. As proof of this, US President Joe Biden just lately stated that “Washington is able to withdraw from the strategic oil reserve if the worth of gasoline rises once more,” and Amos Hochstein stated, the president’s vitality adviser, “Costs at gasoline stations are nonetheless very excessive,” saying: “We’ll do the whole lot in our energy to make sure that the market receives sufficient provide,” as a result of this ‘ revealed an error within the Worldwide Power Company’s forecasts of peak gasoline demand in 2019, which we talked about earlier.

With this significance, this was included within the US presidential campaigns between the Democratic and Republican events, after the worth of a liter of gasoline rose by 50% since President Biden took the presidency from the one who was ‘ beforehand, former President Donald Trump.

On the identical time, OPEC introduced completely different forecasts for the quantity of demand for oil, indicating that demand will proceed to extend by 3 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months and to 116 million barrels per day in 2045. expectations carry a political nature removed from the present state of affairs and the continued enhance within the demand for oil, realizing that these expectations may result in a scarcity of provide, because the group linked to its report requires investments in decreasing fossil vitality sources. , together with oil, which signifies that the world could also be uncovered to an vitality disaster once more because of a decline in investments in conventional vitality sources, which require a really very long time between investments, operation and manufacturing of recent fields. Actually, such studies and counter-reports depart some results on oil costs and result in massive fluctuations that aren’t within the curiosity of each events, as producers and shoppers, in addition to different associated elements to the state of the world financial system and ranges of strategic storage, particularly in the US… Nonetheless, the manufacturing and consuming international locations are each conscious of the oil market state of affairs, so the impression is weak and restricted on the studies of the Worldwide Power Company on costs, which fell for a while after the statements, in addition to coincided with the rise in US stockpiles to $ 76 per barrel of Brent crude oil, but it surely shortly rebounded strongly to extend 4. % inside every week, reaching $82 per barrel, a stage of seven.9% from its lowest ranges on the finish of June, which signifies that oil costs will stand above $80 per barrel on this 12 months, as Goldman Sachs Financial institution anticipated that the worth of a barrel would attain $86 this 12 months worth at first of this week.

* Economist and guide