Oil boycott Russia immediately puts the Netherlands in recession – Wel.nl

A complete boycott of Russian oil and gas will cost the Netherlands 4.5 percent of GDP, Rabobank economists have calculated. The country will immediately fall into a recession.

An oil boycott alone would lead to a slight recession, the bank believes. Russia itself is by far the biggest victim. The economy will shrink with a boycott of oil and gas by 23 percent in 2022 and 2023 is expected.

There is now a lot of support from society for a boycott, but people do not realize that the biggest economic blow is yet to come, the bank thinks. Due to high corporate profits and a shortage on the labor market, the Dutch do not always understand the consequences of a boycott. These will only become clear in 12 to 18 months, the economists estimate.

In the event of an immediate gas boycott, the Netherlands will already have run out of gas in November, if consumption does not fall sharply. Rabobank economist Hugo Erken in the Volkskrant: “The problem is that the Netherlands depends on fossil fuels for 80 percent of its energy consumption. This is lower in other European countries. Therefore, in the event of a gas and oil boycott, the Dutch economy will shrink by 4.5 percent, compared to 2.6 percent. for the whole eurozone.”