Most expectations suggest a continuation of the upward path for oil and gas prices during the current year (2023), supported by the end of the closure in China and the recovery of demand in emerging markets.
The energy sector faced great difficulties in the past year (2022), as a result of multiple crises, foremost of which is the shortage of Russian supplies due to the Ukrainian war that has been raging since February 24.
An analytical study said that amid expectations of a slowdown in production growth oil And gas in 2023. Continuous investments that raise production capacity in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries should enhance the contribution of this vital sector to increasing the growth of the gross domestic product of the countries of the region during the current year.Gulf Times“.
The study, prepared by Emirates NBD Bank, expected that energy prices would continue to rise, with the average price of the benchmark Brent crude mix reaching more than $100 per barrel, and with the remaining restrictions on global supply, and limited opportunities to increase production in the countries of the OPEC + alliance.
The study also expected that the inflation rate at consumer prices in the State of Qatar would reach 3% during the current year (2023), and 2.5% in the next year (2024), according to what was seen by the specialized energy platform.
demand for oil and gas
The study showed that the reopening of the Chinese economy at a faster pace than expected, could lead to an increase in demand for oil andGasand other commodities in the second half of the current year 2023.
A separate study, revealed by the Swiss bank “UBS”, on January 3, had expected that oil and gas prices would continue their upward path in 2023, in light of the recovery of demand in China and emerging markets.
The following graphic – prepared by the specialized energy platform – shows daily oil prices during the year 2022:
The same study also predicted that oil would take the lead in the energy markets during the current year, unlike what was the case in the past year 2022, when thermal coal replaced natural gas and crude oil, according to what was seen by the specialized energy platform.
The study found that the demand for oil will exceed the levels of 2019, to reach record levels during the second half of 2023, with the support of the return of Asian emerging markets – including India – to drive the growth of oil demand.
Qatar budget
In a different context, the study expected to reach balancing act Qatar to 15.4% – as a percentage of GDP – during the current year (2023), and 10.6% in 2024.
The study showed that the nominal GDP of the Gulf country could rise to $227.3 billion in 2023 and $228.8 billion in 2024, according to the specialized energy platform.
It is also expected that the volume of growth in the real GDP of the small country in terms of area will reach 2.7% in 2023, compared to 3% in 2024, according to the study.
Cautious prospects
“The outlook for 2023 looks more cautious, given the weak external environment, although the Gulf countries will likely continue to outperform many advanced economies in terms of GDP growth,” the bank said.
The study expected that the growth rate of the non-oil sector would slow to varying degrees in the Gulf countries in 2023.
In the past year (2022), the Gulf economies grew at the fastest pace in a decade, supported by the significant increase in oil production and the activity of the non-oil sector.
The Emirates NBD study estimated real GDP growth for the Gulf countries at 7.4% in 2022, more than double the growth rate achieved in the previous year (2021).
budget surplus
The study stated that the budgets of oil producers among the Gulf countries are likely to record a surplus during the current year 2023, which allows the governments of the region to pump more investments in the infrastructure sector, as well as other strategic sectors.
This will help mitigate the effects of weak external demand, slower consumption rates in the private sector, and slower pace of investment.
As a result, the Gulf countries will likely outperform in terms of growth rates in 2023, according to forecasts seen by the specialized energy platform.
The results of the study concluded that the global economy will witness a significant slowdown in growth during the current year, with the beginning of the emergence of the results of monetary policies of central banks – led by the US Federal Reserve – during 2022.
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