Ten years after the start of Euratlantique and five years after the arrival of the LGV, the change of category of Bordeaux is confirmed in the tertiary real estate. In ten years, the office stock in the metropolis has thus gained one million m2 to reach around 3.2 million m2. In terms of activity, Bordeaux ranks 6th among French cities and 3rd for new construction.
Since the drop in 2020 linked to Covid-19 to 123,000 m2, the Bordeaux office market has continued to climb the slope with a further 15% increase in the areas traded last year to reach 148,000 m2, i.e. a level identical to 2018. The number of transactions increased slightly by 4% over one year. Activity in 2022 is therefore above the average for the past decade (132,000 m2) but remains down -35% compared to the historic peak of 2019.
« The momentum is there, especially in new construction with 63,000 m2 in 2022, and constant growth since 2020. The year 2019 was historic and we will probably not return to it in the years to come. I would rather count on a cruising speed between 120,000 and 150,000 m2 per year. But all this will depend on the investment capacities of companies and the offer that we will have to put up. The start of 2023 is calm but not at a standstill. We can therefore be reasonably confident about the number of transactions even if the volume may not be there. “, deciphers Valery Carron, the president of the OIEB (Observatory of the business real estate of Bordeaux Métropole).
An increase in supply since 2017
The heart of the agglomeration – Bordeaux, Euratlantique and Bordeaux Lac – concentrates 60% of the surfaces exchanged which are balanced almost equally between new and second hand. ” Properties of 100 to 500 m2 located in the city center are the most sought after and constitute the heart of the Bordeaux market, totaling six out of ten transactions “, observes Valery Carron. In total, 87% of transactions are linked to endogenous development projects and 13% to the creation or establishment of new companies. Among the significant operations in own accounts are the future premises of Ubisoft, those of Essca, both on the right bank, or the campus of Elisa Aerospace.
Rents on the rise in Bordeaux
Rental values continue to rise with €218/HT/HC/m2/year for new buildings in Bordeaux (+9% over one year) and €209 for second-hand (+20%). The market on the outskirts is stable at €154 for new or even down slightly to €127 for second-hand. For very high-end properties in hyper-centres, the most expensive rents can now reach €360, against a ceiling of €320 a year earlier.
With 209,000 m2 available in one year at the end of 2022, of which a third will be new, the stock of offices has been growing steadily since 2017 and represents more than one year of activity. But not enough to constitute a risk of over-supply, assures the president of the OIEB, who also manages the teams of BNP Paribas Real Estate in Bordeaux: “ This year and next year, BNP studies are counting on a fairly low volume of new buildings, around 30,000 m2 per year, which will therefore be consumed. If nothing is launched, there is a risk, on the contrary, of having a real concern for new supply in certain sectors, including Euratlantique and the city centre. »
The market therefore seems to offer companies more choice even if the contrasts are strong between the different districts with, for example, a stock of less than one year in Bordeaux center where the vacancy rate is 4%. The latter fluctuates from 1% on the right bank, with scarce new supply, to 10% in the west of the metropolis and at Euratlantique.
Click on the image to enlarge. Geographical breakdown of transactions and available supply in the Bordeaux metropolitan area (credits: OIEB).
Finally, on the investor side, the attractiveness of Bordeaux is undeniable with 432 million euros invested last year, i.e. a very high level despite the 23% drop compared to the record of 562 million in 2021. downturn mainly related to offices while commercial premises and warehouses performed well. ” The outlook for the office in 2023 is good after the wait-and-see attitude at the end of 2022 because the market fundamentals are good and the ten-year development prospects remain attractive for investors both in terms of the economy and demographics. », note Valery Carron.
Shortage of new business premises
On the market for business premises and warehouses, the situation is more complicated. Demand for business premises has not progressed for five years and the year 2022, with 142,000 m2 exchanged, is right on average. Available stock is down slightly to 127,000 m2, of which only 21,000 m2 is new.
Click on the image to enlarge. Placed demand for business premises and warehouses from 2020 to 2022. (credits: OIEB).
For small warehouses, of less than 5,000 m2, it is even worse: with 33,000 m2 in 2022 for only eleven transactions, the market contracts by -18%. The stock is also in free fall with only 12,500 m2 of space available in one year. In question ? The absence of any new supply in 2022.
« The supply of warehouses is very very low, even in second hand. We are at zero nine or almost… », Understates Valery Carron, who explains it by « the scarcity of available land and the air pocket linked to projects postponed by the Covid, knowing that a warehouse project requires 18 months of procedures. The air pocket should therefore last a little since we expect new projects only for the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. »
For large warehouses, over 5,000 m2, things are much better with eleven transactions for 77,000 m2 in 2022, down 42% over one year and -30% compared to the average of the last five years. The stock represents only six months of activity.
