The deepest recession of the global economy ever in peacetime is approaching, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Wednesday. According to the latest outlook, the average shrinkage for 2020 would be 6 percent.
“By the end of 2021, the loss of income will outpace previous non-wartime recessions of the past hundred years. This will have serious and long-lasting consequences for people, businesses and governments,” said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
If the pandemic is curbed, the economy will recover again in 2021, according to OECD, with a growth of 5.2 percent.
However, in the equally realistic scenario of a second contamination wave, the picture is less rosy. In that case, the global economy will shrink by 7.6 percent this year and grow only 2.8 percent in 2021.
According to the OECD, governments are well advised to use their crisis measures to support low-wage workers and encourage investment. Higher government debt is permitted in these times of economic decline and rising unemployment, Boone said.
UK can expect shrinkage of up to 14 percent
The largest economy in the world, that of the United States, is projected to shrink by 7.3 percent in 2020 and to grow 4.1 percent in 2021. If a second outbreak occurs, shrinkage and growth will come to 8.5 and 1.9 percent, respectively.
According to OECD, the expected contraction for the eurozone in the current situation this year is 9.1 percent, with a growth of 6.5 percent in 2021. With a second corona wave, the recession would reach 11.5 percent in 2020 and growth is expected to be 3.5 percent next year.
The United Kingdom has the worst papers, according to OECD, with an expected contraction of 11.5 percent this year and growth of 9 percent in 2021. A second wave could even lead to shrinkage of 14 percent in 2020. The growth would then be in 2021 an estimated 5 percent.
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