MILANO – Estimates on Italian growth are rising, in a generalized framework of caution that leads to slightly limiting the estimate for the entire planet: growth is strong but not well balanced. This is what emerges from the update of the Economic Perspectives, presented today by the OECD.
For this year, the Parisian Organization indicates a + 6.3% of the Italian GDP, against the + 5.9% estimated in September and the + 6% indicated by the government in the Update to the Def. On the other hand, only yesterday Istat confirmed the + 2.6% of the Italian economy in the third quarter and – thanks to this push – the growth achieved for the whole year exceeds six percentage points. The trend forecast for Italy will progressively decrease in 2022 and 2023, with a respective growth of 4.6% and 2.6%.
Worldwide, the OECD estimates that GDP will rise by 5.6% this year, slightly down from the 5.8% calculated with the spring outlook, and then it will fall to 4.5% in 2022 and 3.2 % in 2023. Also the trend of the economy Usa it was revised down to 5.6% from 6.9% in May (+ 3.7% in 2022 and + 2.4% in 2023). The Chinese GDP which this year should grow by 8.1% from 8.5% in May and by 5.1% in both 2022 and 2023. Better forecasts instead for the GDP of the Eurozone which will grow by 5.2% this year (+ 4.3% in May), by 4.3% in 2022 and by 2.5% in 2023.
The health issue obviously hovers over the forecasts. The Secretary General of the OECD, Mathias Cormann, presenting the estimates, has issued a severe warning on the global disparities with respect to the vaccination campaign. Inequality, which in addition to having consequences on health also have an impact on the economy. “Vaccination coverage remains unequal, in developing countries but also here in Europe “, said Cormann, inviting” to continue the efforts without respite “to get vaccinated” the whole world population “.” Omicron could represent a threat to the recovery “; echoed OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
In conversation with the Financial Times, Boone added uncertainty to the return to normal and this adds to the forecast of growth ininflation which is creating quite a few headaches for central bankers: in the G20, the forecast for 2022 went from 3.9 to 4.4% with the US and the United Kingdom standing out for the increase in estimates, from 3.1 to 4, 4 percent.
In the same OECD document, the risk of phobics: “The global recovery continues but has lost momentum and is becoming increasingly unbalanced,” writes the organization. “Some areas of the global economy are recovering rapidly, but others risk falling behind, particularly low-income countries where vaccination rates are low and demand has yet to fully recover.”
Pisu (OECD): “Italy will grow more than the Euro area thanks to investments and exports”
by Raffaele Ricciardi
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In the paragraph dedicated toItaly, the Organization forecasts that Italian growth will remain “robust” over the forecast horizon, despite the physiological slowdown with the normalization of activity and the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimuli. Private investment and domestic demand are confirmed in tow, while the implementation of reforms and investment incentives support confidence. The NRP is seen as a key to public investment, while tourism and supply chain bottlenecks should slowly but steadily return to the ranks, with benefits for exports. Corporate bankruptcies, effectively frozen by the pandemic, will also rise but adequate levels of credit loss coverage will mitigate the impact on major banks and their loans. Although the pressures of energy prices are seen as gradually reducing, inflation core that is, net of the variable components, it is expected to grow over the forecast horizon.
From energy to food. Inflation is now biting Italy
by Aldo Fontanarosa
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The more sustained growth favors the decreasing trend of Italian public debt even if “the high levels remain a source of potential vulnerability, together with the risks associated with Covid”, writes the OECD. In 2021 the report debt / GDP it will settle at 154.6% and then drop to 150.4% in 2022 and 148.6% in 2023. The organization highlights the need for “greater growth in the medium term to lower” the level of debt. The ratio is also down deficit / GDP to 9.4% this year to 5.9% in 2022 and 4.3% in 2023. The rate of unemployment it will stand at 9.6% in 2021 and then drop to 8.9% in 2022 and 8.4% in 2023. The report notes that “the recovery of employment is weak” compared to the “recovery of activities” . Fixed-term contracts have supported the increase in jobs. “Wage growth is still contained”, highlights the OECD.
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