NYMEX crude oil continues to look at $78.97
On Thursday (March 2), the rise in international oil prices was blocked, and investors worried that rising US crude oil inventories and further interest rate hikes in Europe may affect economic growth. However, the risk in the oil market is still on the upward side, and NYMEX crude oil continues to look at $78.97.
At 16:22 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.10% to $77.61/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.08% to $84.24/barrel.
Two major crude oil futures rose more than 2 percent in the previous two sessions after data earlier this week showed Chinese manufacturing activity grew at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February. But a tenth straight weekly build in U.S. crude inventories weighed on the market.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported overnight that U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.165 million barrels to 480.2 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 24, the highest level since May 2021, a higher increase than analysts had expected The expected 457,000 barrels. That’s despite U.S. crude oil exports hitting a record high of 5.6 million barrels per day.
Oil was also hit by uncertainty looming over the overall global demand outlook. Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose more than expected in February, and inflation in France and Spain, also major European economies, unexpectedly increased in February. But in the U.S., the ISM manufacturing PMI for February had recovered from a more than 2-1/2-year low previously recorded, with signs that factory activity was starting to stabilize, despite contracting for the fourth straight month.
“Inflation in Germany has raised concerns that the ECB will have to tighten policy more aggressively,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note. U.S. data showed the economy was still slowing, but some parts Improving. Oil prices look set to stay in a trading range, but the risks are clearly to the upside and some traders may be waiting for next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report.”
On the daily chart, NYMEX crude oil showed repeated bottoming after approaching $70 in December last year. Oil prices seem to be struggling to break below $72. If the oil price starts an upward wave III from US$73.80, it has already broken through the 38.2% target of US$77, and will further challenge the 61.8% target of US$78.97. Wave iii is a sub-wave of the upward (iii) wave that started from $72.25, and wave (iii) is a sub-wave of the upward ((i)) wave that started from $70.08.
