What you should know
- New York’s positivity rate and average weekly cases are declining, two key indicators pointing to the state’s progress in getting past the peak of Omicron’s current wave, Governor Kathy Hochul announced Friday.
- They are part of growing signs, such as shorter test lines and fewer medical calls from EMS and firefighters, that point to better days to come.
- Perhaps one of the clearest indicators that the peak has been exceeded is the number of new cases reported in a single day. That number has been cut in half in a week, from an all-time high of more than 90,000 cases reported on January 8.
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NEW YORK — New York’s positivity rate and average weekly cases are declining, two key indicators pointing to the state’s progress in getting past the peak of Omicron’s current wave, Governor Kathy Hochul announced Friday.
They are part of growing signs, such as shorter test lines and fewer medical calls from EMS and firefighters, that point to better days to come. Perhaps one of the clearest indicators that the peak has been exceeded is the number of new cases reported in a single day. That number has been cut in half in a week, from an all-time high of more than 90,000 cases reported on January 8.
“There will come a time when we can say it’s all over,” Hochul said. “We’re not there yet, but, it’s on the horizon and we’ve waited a long time for it.”
All the work New Yorkers have done to protect themselves against the Omicron variant appears to have paid off, prompting the Governor on Friday to make her most definitive statement yet: “So here’s the news: We’re folding the corner!”.
In New York City, hospitals are already feeling less strain, according to Mayor Eric Adams. But, he warned, we are not out of the woods. Frontline workers are still stretched thin, prompting a federal response to help ease the burden.
“It really does look like the numbers at our hospitals are leveling off,” Adams said, before hiding too much optimism.
This comes a day after Hochul’s office released data showing that advancing COVID infections in New York have declined for the first time since Omicron’s appearance, as has continued positivity, fueling hope that the variant peak has passed.
On Thursday, Hochul reported a daily death toll of 195, a 17% increase over the previous recent high and the highest single-day total in a year. Hochul reported 177 news deaths the next day. Tragically, the increasing number of lives lost may also reflect a relaxation of the Omicron wave. First, there is the increase in cases, then the increase in hospitalizations. This recent daily high is thankfully lower than the 800 New Yorkers who were dying a day before the pandemic and reflects the power of vaccination along with other efforts to slow viral spread, but it is a critical reminder.
President Joe Biden announced Thursday that he will send new federal medical backup teams to hospitals in New York and New Jersey, as part of an effort to shore up the nation’s medical system as COVID hospitalizations remain near record highs. Rafael Pujols responds.
As Hochul said in a statement about the latest numbers, “Although the rate of new infections continues to move in a promising direction, too many New Yorkers are getting sick, hospitalized or tragically losing their lives; we must remain vigilant in our fight against the virus. No we can afford to reverse progress.
That progress is becoming more apparent in more metrics every day. After weeks of hospitalizations across the state that were increasing mostly daily, sometimes noticeably, New York reported a reduction of 219 patients. Fewer than 12,500 patients are hospitalized for COVID statewide, a high not seen from April 2020 until recently.
Some of that can be attributed to the increase in lives lost compared to the past few days, but nearly 2,000 patients were discharged, nearly 50 more than the number newly admitted, according to the state.
Other reasons for optimism: Of nearly 357,000 total tests conducted Wednesday, the highest testing volume in the last five days, fewer than 17% came back positive, another recent development, while the state’s seven-day rolling average of positivity fell below 20%. That moving positivity is still extremely high, especially considering that the moving average was just above 3% exactly two months ago, but hasn’t been as low as Hochul reported Thursday (18.61%) since December 30. and marks a sustained decline.
Infections among vaccinates, which have increased weekly per 100,000 fully vaccinated New Yorkers since Oct. 25, but sharply since the second week of November, when Omicron was likely spreading undetected across the state, also it declined by that metric for the first time in more than a month. According to the most recent data, 219.4 per 100,000 fully vaccinated New Yorkers were becoming new cases.
That’s down from a high of 260.6 per 100,000 fully vaccinated New Yorkers in the previous weekly update on Dec. 27. Meanwhile, breakthrough hospitalizations have increased, from 4.60 hospitalizations per 100,000 fully vaccinated New Yorkers in the December 27 data set to 5.79 in the latest data set. Still, that means fewer than six fully vaccinated New Yorkers per 100,000 are getting sick from COVID.
But, unvaccinated New Yorkers are still nearly eight times more likely to be infected with COVID than those who are fully vaccinated and nearly 13 times more likely to be hospitalized, but the risk is falling for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.
Daily new cases in New York rebounded above 60,000 on Thursday for the first time all week, so it will take a little longer to determine if this current trend is sustainable.
Hochul has said he feels like it could be, but has yet to declare victory.
Asked earlier this week if she would consider allowing her statewide mask mandate, which she extended through February 2 in her winter hike plan, to expire at that time, the Democrat said she wanted to “earn a little more than time” to make sure it holds.
In New York City, which bore the brunt of this wave and others, Health Commissioner Dr. Dave Chokshi says it’s too early to change any protocol given the exorbitantly high rates of infection and hospitalization in the five counties.
That said, this latest data provides a bit more of what Hochul has described as “glimmers of hope” that the protocol — mask wearing, vaccination mandates, testing and other measures — are working across the board to the majority.
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