Nupi researcher Morten Bøås warns of dramatic consequences

While Western countries like Norway are facing waves of older people and falling birth rates, Africa is experiencing the exact opposite:

Population growth is skyrocketing and at an alarming rate to say the least. The phenomenon is particularly visible on the belt that extends along the western coast of the continent, from the city of Lagos in Nigeria to Abidjan in the Ivory Coast.

By the end of this century, according to the UN forecasts, the area will be the most densely populated place on earth, while 40 percent of the world’s population will be African.

– Africa is undoubtedly the continent that will lead urbanization in the future. And the biggest changes will happen along this coast, says Daniel Hoornweg, a researcher on urbanization at Ontario Tech University. The Guardian.

In a longer report, the newspaper analyzed the development of West Africa and its possible consequences.

– If development fails, huge economic potential will be lost and, at worst, all hell can break loose, says Hoornweg.

More on this possible “hell” below.

– The only security

How Africa became “the youngest continent we know of in history” – as senior researcher and Africa expert Morten Bøås of the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (Nupi) describes it.

The most important reason is that Africans still choose to have many children. In the most extreme case, Niger in West Africa, each woman has an average of seven children.

– They do this because there are no welfare schemes that take care of them when they stop working. Then children become the only guarantee that parents will be cared for when they get older, explains Bøås.

One might think that this changed as millions of people moved to the big cities. However, the trend continued despite urbanization.

This was actually also the case when urbanization started in earnest in Norway:

– It took two or three generations before people stopped having many children. If urbanization continues for a while, the birth rate will drop, but it will take some time for it to take effect.

Think that time is running out

Nor is it a fact that urbanization leads to lower birth rates, the senior researcher points out.

One factor is absolutely decisive: there must be enough jobs for both women and men who migrate to the big cities.

– Otherwise, these people, as in many African cities, will become part of an informal and sometimes even illegal economy, where life is rather uncertain. Then it won’t pay to stop having many children, says Bøås.

Creating a transition from an informal to a more formalized economy requires a large and well-functioning state apparatus. Financial, social, political, educational and physical infrastructures must be in place.

It must also be profitable to invest in businesses, which is not exactly the case during the current economic uncertainty.

Time bombs in Africa

On the one hand, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), signed between 44 African countries in 2018, has created great optimism for the increase in trade, jobs and the strengthening of the African economy.

Economists have actually predicted that thanks to this cooperation, Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) will increase to four trillion kroner by 2035, according to The Guardian.

However, the lack of urban planning and well-functioning infrastructure hinder the realization of the potential of this trade deal, the newspaper writes.

For many of the African states, this is an almost impossible task, Bøås believes. Take Mali, for example, where the population is projected to double by 2045, from 18-20 million to between 40 and 45 million people.

– If you look at the proportion of fertile land in the country, you can start wondering what all these will do.

And time is running out, the Nupi researcher fears.

Horror scenario: – Social explosions

This is where we return to the hellish scenery of Hoornweg.

Because what really happens when the population numbers keep growing and millions of people are squeezed together in big cities, without the state having a plan for them?

The senior researcher outlines the worst possible outcome that shivers down your spine:

– You can imagine cities almost drowning in people; social explosions that drag the entire political system downwards. At worst, it could create a major state collapse in the West African region. Huge crowds of people will be sent on the run in an attempt to escape the ensuing chaos. Some of them will try to get to Europe.

Hunger claims a life every 48 seconds

Accuse the West of fear of touch

Bøås believes that in the West we have turned a blind eye to these issues for too long and have been anxious about population growth in African countries.

– There is every reason to take it seriously and we need to start talking about it.

The researcher points out that he does not believe that a forced one-child policy is the way to go. He believes the most fruitful will be to engage in conversations at the UN and the African Union (AU) about what types of family planning programs can work.

– It would be completely wrong to link it to aid, it has to come from the countries themselves, but someone has to step forward and try to facilitate these talks, says Bøås.

– Are you optimistic that it will really happen?

– I hope responsible state leaders eventually begin to realize the responsibility that rests on their shoulders. But I’m not super optimistic, at least not for some of the more vulnerable states without strong institutions.

– A serious situation

Population growth isn’t the only thing casting a dark shadow on Africa’s future prospects.

African countries are warming faster than the global average, and climate change threatens more than 100 million Africans living in extreme poverty, according to the UN.

It could destroy the possibilities of agriculture, which in turn would mean that less food would be produced for big cities.

– If it really goes wrong, it could have important implications for migration as well. Both for Europe, but above all for neighboring countries, which they may not be able to resist. This is a serious situation that we need to deal with, says Bøås.