SENTRALEN IN OSLO (Nettavisen): The hard-hitting organization ICAN organized this week an international conference on the fight against nuclear weapons at Sentralen in Oslo – just a few blocks away from Oslo City Hall where ICAN was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.
The backdrop for the “Act On It” conference is Russia’s regular threats to use nuclear weapons. This is the first time in decades that the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons has come under such great pressure.
Nina Tannenwald, who is visiting professor of international studies at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, gave a speech at the conference on the taboo associated with the first use of nuclear weapons. Tannenwald has written the book “The Nuclear Taboo”.
MAD (mutually assured destruction) – guaranteed mutual destruction – is a strategic military doctrine from the days of the Cold War which involves the total annihilation of both attacker and defender in the event of a nuclear war.
Tannenwald argues that both nuclear deterrence and the nuclear weapons taboo, which is widespread and established in the world community, have contributed to the fact that doomsday weapons have not been used since American atomic bombs were dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945.
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– We don’t know if Putin is bluffing
Tannenwald says that President Vladimir Putin’s fierce and regular nuclear weapons rhetoric has been damaging to the taboo, but that it persists thanks to the world’s response to the threats.
– If Russia had used nuclear weapons, they would have ended up as a pariah state, says Tannenwald to Nettavisen.
It would probably mean that even Russia’s allies – such as China, India and a number of nations in the Global South – would despise and ostracize Russia. Several of Russia’s friends have already expressed concern or condemnation of Russia’s nuclear threats.
– After so many nuclear threats that have not been followed up, how credible are these threats from Putin and the hawks in the Kremlin, Tannenwald?
– I don’t know what Putin is thinking inside his head now, and there is an ongoing discussion about whether these threats are credible or not. Since Putin has yet to use nuclear weapons after a year, many pundits believe that means he is bluffing. But we don’t know if he’s bluffing, she says to Nettavisen.
Tannenwald refers to so-called “pundits”, which is an English term for pundits and experts who opine and speak to the mass media.
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– It is a frightening time
Tannenwald opens her speech at the conference by saying that the events of the past year have worried her. This is the very first time throughout her entire career that she has been truly concerned that a nuclear power will be able to use nuclear weapons.
– It is a frightening time, and it will continue to be so as long as the war in Ukraine continues, she says.
Tannenwald says that there were many who believed that it was only a matter of time after Nagasaki and Hiroshima before nuclear weapons would be used again. But nuclear deterrence and the nuclear weapons taboo have kept the nuclear powers in check for just over 77 years.
According to Tannenwald, the most important origin of the taboo was a global grassroots movement which helped to stigmatize the atomic bomb. She refers to both the efforts of civil society and disarmament policy in the UN as important contributors.
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Three main periods
She outlines three main periods of anti-nuclear weapons movements. The first was in the 1950s with protests in the US, UK and Japan.
The protests were triggered by the nuclear powers’ extensive test explosions and the fear that the nuclear tests would expose people to radioactive radiation.
The second period was in the 1980s at the height of the Cold War, which was partly triggered by the fierce nuclear rhetoric of the time between the superpowers the United States and the Soviet Union.
The third period is now underway, according to Tannenwald, and probably started with Barack Obama’s Prague speech in 2009, where he committed the US to further nuclear disarmament (Obama was, as is known, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 precisely for his disarmament initiative).
However, Obama’s implementation ability has been criticized in retrospect.
Over the past decade, ICAN has paved the way for the taboo against the use of nuclear weapons to be consolidated with an international treaty. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) entered into force in January 2021, but has not been signed or ratified by nuclear powers or NATO members.
Tannenwald says that the nuclear ban has contributed to the taboo against nuclear weapons becoming “institutionalised”.
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– Eisenhower wanted to destroy the taboo
Tannenwald highlights concrete examples of how the nuclear weapons taboo may have prevented the first use of nuclear weapons in history.
She refers to a statement made when President Dwight D. Eisenhower had a meeting with the US National Security Council (NSC) in 1953 on the eve of the Korean War.
The discussion focused on whether the United States could use nuclear weapons to bring about a final end to the war.
However, the statement suggests that they considered the nuclear weapons taboo, which was growing in the population, as a limitation on the freedom to use nuclear weapons.
“One way or another, the taboo surrounding the use of nuclear weapons must be destroyed,” reads the statement from the meeting. “We have to consider the atomic bomb as just another weapon in our arsenal.”
Furthermore, Tannenwald refers to an example from a CIA document that was prepared during the Vietnam War. The intelligence analyst had prepared an analysis that assessed possible reactions if the US used nuclear weapons in the Vietnam War.
The CIA document concluded that if the United States used nuclear weapons in the Vietnam War, it would trigger “a widespread and fundamental revulsion that the United States has broken the 20-year taboo on the use of nuclear weapons.”
– This shows that the taboo has influenced decision-making, says Tannenwald.
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– Harmful to the taboo
Over five decades later, Putin is about to challenge the taboo with his constant direct and indirect nuclear threats.
– This is very harmful to the nuclear weapons taboo because it normalizes nuclear weapons and suggests that it is legitimate to use them, says Tannenwald.
NATO, the UN, the EU and the West in general have been crystal clear in their condemnation of Putin’s threats. In addition, Russian allies have also long indicated great displeasure with Putin’s rustling of nuclear weapons.
– The world’s response to Putin’s threats has helped to maintain the taboo in order to reinforce it, and make it clear to the world that they think the taboo is important, says Tannenwald during the presentation.
