The big news is not that North Korea’s newly developed missile is hypersonic, but that it will have a glider.
On Tuesday this week, the nuclear power North Korea announced that they have carried out a missile test with a newly developed hypersonic missile. Hwasong-8 is most likely a ballistic missile that uses the body and engine of the long-range medium-range missile Hwasong-12, and a step with a separating warhead. Halvor Kippe, a nuclear researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI), informs Nettavisen.
There are many indications that the new hypersonic missile, which is at least five times faster than the speed of sound, can be equipped with nuclear warheads.
– It has an alleged glider instead of the usual warhead. The missile will be able to carry a nuclear warhead, but it is far from certain that it will only play such a role. North Korea has many more missiles than they have nuclear warheads, so most missiles have enough conventional warheads, says Kippe.
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– This is the news itself
Kippe says that the warheads from ballistic missiles normally fall freely to the ground in a predictable trajectory.
– This means that it can be intercepted by missile defense systems if you can follow it with radar. With a glider, you can instead change trajectory in the part of the flight that is inside the atmosphere. The news here is therefore not that the missile is hypersonic, but that it should have a glider, Kippe emphasizes.
Some hypersonic glider missiles can in theory fly 20 times the speed of sound, according to experts CNN have talked to, making them almost impossible to shoot down.
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FFI researcher Kippe points out that all ballistic missiles that have ranges of a few hundred kilometers range fly hypersonically.
– But it is only in recent years that countries such as Russia, China and North Korea have begun to mount gliders on these. The United States is also developing hypersonic gliders. The point of such is only to make them difficult to cut off, says the FFI researcher.
North Korea constantly reiterates that it needs nuclear weapons to protect itself from arch-enemy the United States. Kippe says the Americans have missile defense systems in South Korea, Japan and at sea, among other places, and that North Korea is doing its part to ensure that its missiles have the opportunity to penetrate these systems.
– If it is true, it can change the balance of power
Analysts that CNN has spoken to say that a North Korea with access to hypersonic missiles with a glider will be able to change the entire military balance of power in the region.
“If this is true, it means that the current missile defense systems of South Korea and Japan will be almost powerless,” Lionel Fatton told CNN.
Fatton is both a senior lecturer at Webster University in Switzerland and a researcher at Meiji University in Japan.
“A hypersonic missile equipped with a nuclear warhead that can overcome advanced missile defense systems will be a crucial turning point,” former US Department of Defense official Drew Thompson told CNN.
– But wanting it and actually having it, are two very different things, he says.
– Shorter response time
North Korea itself has used the term “strategic” when describing its new missile. Experts believe that the use of “strategic” suggests that the missile has nuclear weapons capacity.
The missile test in North Korea has by no means passed the West House. The United States, Britain and France are said to have taken the initiative to hold meetings of the UN Security Council on Thursday, where the topic is precisely the new missile test for North Korea.
Another point that has received too little attention after the latest missile test in North Korea, is that they have now stated that all their ballistic missiles with liquid fuel will eventually use a technology that makes it possible to refuel them before deployment, says Kippe.
– This means that they get response times of a few minutes against the current situation, where in some cases it probably takes over an hour to refuel and prepare for launch. This is also about survival, but not against missile defense systems. Missiles are vulnerable to air attacks when they are prepared and refueled in the open air, says the nuclear researcher.
Six nuclear test explosions
North Korea has previously conducted six nuclear tests, but it is far from certain that the North Koreans will be able to succeed in mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile and at the same time deliver the nuclear charge to a desired target.
North Korea most likely has a dozen nuclear weapons. Some estimates suggest that nuclear power may have between 30 and 40 nuclear weapons or more. But nothing has been officially confirmed.
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