As of today, talks between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program will continue in Vienna. The last meeting ended last Tuesday with no concrete progress.
What is the nuclear deal with Iran about?
The nuclear agreement (JCPoA) was concluded in 2015 between the UN veto powers (USA, China, Russia, France, Great Britain), as well as Germany and Iran. It was supposed to dissuade Tehran from becoming a nuclear force by, for example, adhering to certain upper limits for uranium enrichment and production, compliance with which is controlled internationally. In return, sanctions against Iran should be lifted.
But as early as 2018, under then President Trump, the United States withdrew from the agreement – in protest from the other contracting states. Since then, the Islamic Republic has not kept its promises and has gradually increased its nuclear program. In addition, the access of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to Iranian nuclear facilities has been severely restricted, as IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed just a few days ago.
US President Jo Biden wants to go back to the nuclear deal. How has it failed so far?
Since spring 2021, shortly after the new US President took office, diplomats have been in the starting blocks to negotiate the new edition or the continuation in Vienna. But so far neither the USA nor Iran want to take the first step: Iran demands that the US sanctions must first be lifted. Washington, on the other hand, demands that Iran abide by the agreements in the agreement for the time being, for example with regard to its uranium enrichment, and would like to add a few points to the treaty, for example to include the Iranian missile program, which threatens Israel in particular. This is not only rejected by the hardliners in Tehran, they have recently steadily expanded their nuclear program – in order to build up pressure at the negotiating table, observers believe.
What are the chances that it will work this time?
In economic terms, the Iranian leadership needs the agreement. The economy is in very bad shape, the currency is falling, and inflation is rising steadily. According to official figures, 30 percent of the Iranian population live below the poverty line.
Iran’s President Raisi, a hardliner who has been in office since August, promised during the election campaign to change that. To do this, his government would have to export oil and trade with foreign countries, both of which are only possible to a very limited extent due to the US sanctions. The US also wants to reinstate the agreement as they are nervous about the Iranian nuclear program, over which there is little control. The same is true of the other signatory states, including Germany. In the new coalition agreement of the future government it is said that they are committed to “a speedy conclusion of the nuclear negotiations with Iran (JCPoA).” It also emphasizes the precarious human rights situation, which has so far not played a role in the nuclear agreement. But Iran is unlikely to be willing to make concessions here.
What could a compromise look like?
US Secretary of State Blinken recently announced that Vienna would concentrate mainly on the nuclear program and leave long-term issues such as the missile program out of the picture for the time being. In return, Tehran would have to take significant steps back to its obligations – above all, to allow the IAEA to regain control of all plants. European diplomats and politicians in particular see the agreement as a lever to be able to exert greater pressure on the leadership in Tehran in the future – above all on the issues of human rights, political prisoners and security issues in the region.
What do the Iranians think of the nuclear deal?
In the summer of 2015, when the contract was signed, there were joyful dances on the streets of Tehran: For many, the chance to get out of international isolation suddenly appeared very close. Today, many Iranians are disillusioned with all the back and forth surrounding the agreement and angry about international politics, but above all about their own leadership, which is not acting in the interests of the people, many say.
From an economic point of view, many people would like a return to the agreement, as many associate it with an improvement in their own situation. But there are also Iranians who hope that no agreement can be reached, because they see it as a strengthening of the regime.
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