Less concerned about export logistics and the conditions of the Chinese market than last year, today the cherry producers of Ñuble are crossing their fingers so that the El Niño phenomenon does not play tricks on them, for example, with frost, hail or rain, which could ruin the season’s production.
The good news is that the Chinese New Year will be celebrated on February 10, which also gives the sector more time to make shipments with less pressure than last season, when this celebration – which determines the highest demand and prices for the cherries in China – fell on January 22.
The Cherry Committee of the Association of Fruit Exporters of Chile AG (Asoex), which represents more than 85% of the volume of Chilean cherry exports, released this week its first estimate for the 2023-2024 season, estimating 95.4 million boxes (5 kilos each) are the total shipments for this exercise that began just a few weeks ago.
“Although the new estimate shows an increase of 15% compared to last season’s shipments, we must keep in mind that, given the climatic reality that is being faced, it is a volume that varies constantly, which is why, The data will be limited as the season progresses. What there is greater certainty about is that we will continue sending cherries of very good quality, size and flavor to the world to ensure that consumers can enjoy this Chilean fruit, especially in China, our main destination,” observed Iván Marambio, president of Asoex.
In the same sense, Claudia Soler, executive director of the Asoex Cherry Committee, pointed out that “we have never had a season so difficult to estimate, since the volumes vary week by week, especially due to agroclimatic issues that we have been facing as a sector. . For this reason, this first estimate does not include the effect of the latest rains, nor adjustments for late fruit set and abortions in development.”
Climate uncertainty
Agricultural engineer Elena Yáñez, a cherry producer from Coihueco, who also advises producers and chairs the cherry GTT, recognized that “the climate is very changing, climate change is affecting us in that sense, since it is less predictable. Just over the weekend we had a frontal system that was practically temporary with rain and, for example, in our field, in the Las Tijeras sector, 90 millimeters fell between Saturday and Sunday, with a lot of wind, and that creates problems, we were scared” .
In that sense, he clarified that “it is not a problem when it rains when it should rain, but when it rains in phenological states in which we have problems with the fruit, it is complex.” He specified that, in general, “we already have fruit set and we still do not have a change in color, which is the most complicated thing about having this rain.”
Furthermore, Yáñez commented that in some areas of the foothills there were frosts on Tuesday, “and that activates the emergency systems, to mitigate, because having frost, at this height of fruit growth, from flowering onwards is quite harmful.” .
“This year I am more scared of the El Niño phenomenon than of a commercial problem,” the producer acknowledged.
He recalled that, “we had two very hard years; The two years of the pandemic, for cherries from the south-central area of Chile, were very bad, the markets practically collapsed, we had logistical problems, the fruit arrived in poor condition to China and the Chinese, due to the Covid issue, They had the markets closed, very bad marketing, there were two years in which we had no returns and since last season the commercial situation with the Chinese began to be fixed, last year we had no logistics problems and I would say that we returned to prices, not like before the pandemic, but prices that allowed us to pay our debts and recover our cash flows.”
For this season, he maintained that “there is a great demand again from China, but according to various advisors, at the national level there is a drop in cherry production; Chile estimated a production of 100 million boxes and some advisors say that we are already at 70 million boxes, without considering the rains we had this weekend, so I believe that there will actually be a lower supply than expected, and it is a developing news because El Niño can continue to surprise us with other events, and climatologists say that we have to be prepared, because November can bring more events and the most serious ones for cherries can be rain and hail.
Regarding the lower production, Elena Yáñez added another element: “we had fewer cold hours and in the cherries, since it is a pit, the productions are greatly influenced by the number of cold hours that accumulate between May 1 and 30 July of each year, and this year we had a lot of rain, but we had fewer cold hours and that was a trigger, that clearly marks our productions.”
Lower production
The president of the Ñuble Farmers Association and cherry producer, Carlos González, acknowledged that “I see this season with uncertainty from a climatic point of view, with changes in temperature, mainly rain, unexpected things, with respect to the previous years”.
“I believe that production will be less than 90 million boxes; There are serious problems in the north, the area of Curicó, Talca, the O’Higgins region, there are very affected varieties, such as Santina, which will cause a drop in production. Last week, with these waters, there was a very important climatic effect of frost in the Angol area, where there is late fruit production. And Ñuble has been saving itself, the climate effect has not yet hit it, because when the big rains have fallen there have been times when we have not had the fruit fully developed. But I think we have to be very attentive, some frosts may fall, but fundamentally we are going to have to be very worried about the next rains, especially with some varieties, such as Santina, Sweet Heart, Lapins, which are very prone to to split, but not varieties like Regina, which are very resistant to splitting and rain,” the leader summarized.
In that sense, he stated that, “if we manage to weather any climatic storm between now and the harvest, I think it will be a good season in terms of prices.”
But he reiterated that production, in general, will be lower. “Apart from the climatic effects, we had a very rainy, very cold winter, which will take its toll on us and, consequently, the yields will be lower than expected.”
González celebrated, on the other hand, the date of the Chinese New Year, “which will allow late fruit, like ours, to arrive at a very good time and, therefore, many better prices are expected than the last season, and this is demonstrated by the fact that exporters, as has never been seen before, have come a lot to the Ñuble area in search of fruit, because it is somewhat complicated to the north, and to the south, Los Angeles and Angol, too. . “They are buying fruits and ensuring low prices, and I had not seen that before.”
Change of look
In the Ñuble region, cherry trees are the third most important fruit tree in planted area (2,973 hectares, according to the 2022 Fruit Cadastre), however, the harvest occurs when the central area has already been shipping fruit for a few weeks, which puts in disadvantages producers in the region compared to Maule and regions to the north, with respect to reaching destination markets.
Elena Yáñez explained that “basically, we depend on the Chinese market depending on when the Chinese New Year is each year, the crisis also hit us hard because right in the pandemic it hit us very early, that is, in January, and for us region that is too early to arrive with the fruit, because we harvest between December 5 and the first days of January, and the trip to China is a month.
“We wanted to compete with the regions from Maule to the north, but today we understood that we cannot plant early varieties, because when a Santina or a Royal Dawn of ours is coming out, in those regions the Lapins and the Kordia are already coming out, and maybe Regina is going to come out, so today we have to produce quality cherry, at the moment, with varieties that correspond to our season, I think that intermediate varieties, like Lapins, like Kordia or Regina, I think that’s what it has to do with. target our business.”
