In recent months, travelers have suffered from rail delays much more often due to a series of causes. However, it is expected that punctuality will increase in 2024, partly due to the 1,800 extra trains per week that have been running since the new timetable came into effect.
This is what NS director Wouter Koolmees and ProRail CEO John Voppen said during a press interview with Treinreizen.nl, among others. In that conversation, both executives indicate that performance on the main rail network in particular has come under pressure over the past two months. In January 2023, only 7% of NS passengers experienced a delay of five minutes or more. In November this percentage increased to 18%, more than doubling. On the high-speed line (HSL), almost half of travelers (49%) experienced delays of more than five minutes.
In November, trains are always late relatively more often, partly due to slippery tracks caused by falling leaves. As a result, trains need more time to brake, making them late more quickly. But this year, according to NS and ProRail, it is a cocktail of causes that have caused punctuality to drop sharply.
Activities at Schiphol
In the press interview, NS and ProRail indicate that the first half of 2023 went relatively well, but things have become a lot more difficult since the summer. Work around Schiphol and Rotterdam, material shortages and temporary speed restrictions on the high-speed line had the greatest impact on punctuality. Voppen: “The tracks at Schiphol are among the most used tracks in the Netherlands.”
Due to major, necessary maintenance, half of the tracks to and from Schiphol were taken out of use, says the ProRail CEO. “To inconvenience travelers as little as possible, we have allowed 70 percent of the trains to run. But that is actually too tight to maintain a reliable timetable.” For example, if a train stood still for a little longer because it was busy, there was no margin to accommodate a small delay.
Material shortage
Another cause of declining punctuality is material shortages. Due to corona and the war in Ukraine, the delivery of the new Intercity trains (ICNG) is about two years behind schedule. As a result, far fewer new trains have been put into service than originally planned, while the older Traxx trains do have to be replaced. Approximately fifteen new trains have now been delivered and three new trains are expected to be added per month.
Another factor is that there is a shortage of technicians. As a result, broken trains may take longer to be repaired. Koolmees emphasizes that NS is doing everything it can to solve that shortage. “We are recruiting like crazy and three MBO training centers have been opened to train technicians for NS.” The new schools are in Amsterdam, Zwolle and Berkel-Enschot.
This shortage was also particularly noticeable in November. In that month, trains were more likely to suffer from so-called square wheels due to falling leaves. Due to the shortage of technical staff, the repair of those trains takes longer. Koolmees further emphasizes that there is also a shortage of personnel at Service and Safety. Last year, NS succeeded in recruiting hundreds of conductors and drivers, which means that more and longer trains can now run again.
‘More trains, less delays’
The 2024 timetable has been in effect for two weeks and more trains run from Monday to Thursday. This involves an additional 1,800 trains every week. For years, NS and ProRail assumed that more trains would cause more delays. After all, an oil slick effect occurs more quickly, with one train passing on a delay to another train.
But it is now clear that fewer trains can actually have a greater impact on punctuality, explains ProRail CEO Voppen. “We see that when the platforms are full because trains run less frequently, boarding and disembarking takes longer, causing delays. “If the trains run more often, we see that fewer passengers have to get on and off, which means that the trains run more punctually,” he concludes.
Treinreizen.nl editor Hildebrand van Kuijeren is not surprised by the conclusions. “Almost twenty years ago, I conducted research into train punctuality during my studies. It was also noticed that busy trains are delayed much more often, because boarding and disembarking takes longer. And it is generally known in the rail world that during the Christmas holidays, for example, trains often run very punctually, because there are fewer travelers.” For the same reason, punctuality during corona was above average. The editor does point out that higher frequencies will only improve punctuality if the timetable can be made suitable.
Looking ahead to 2024
It is expected that punctuality will improve again in 2024. That is also necessary, because there were more travelers late in 2023 than in previous years. However, NS CEO Koolmees also points out that most of the floor values that the railway company has agreed with the ministry will be achieved in 2023. At the same time, the director readily acknowledges that these figures do not say everything: “There have been processes where performance has been under a lot of pressure in recent months. I have experienced that myself. I live in Rotterdam close to the station, and I have also noticed the impact of various activities during my own travels.”
The prospects for 2024 are favorable. Not only because there are more trains running, but also because the running times of trains that are often late have been adjusted, at least where possible. These trains may take a minute longer, but the hope is that such interventions will improve reliability.
Despite this positive outlook, there are also challenges. Because next year there will be more work on the track again. For example, there will be a major shutdown around Amsterdam in February. Travelers will be expressly advised to avoid rush hour around the capital on February 14 and 15. Trains will also be canceled between The Hague, Rotterdam and Breda at a time to be determined in early 2024, because NS will be training drivers on a large scale for use on the ICNG trains. During that period, the Amsterdam – Rotterdam – Breda trains will be extended to Eindhoven.
This post was last modified on 22 december 2023 18:50
2023-12-22 17:50:57
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