The IBRIS poll for wp.pl is moderately positive news for PiS; his support does not fall, but remains in relation to the previous measurement – told PAP political scientist from the University of Warsaw, Dr. Ewa Marciniak. As she noted, this poll is also a promising signal for the ruling party.
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WITH poll IBRIS shows that if the elections to the Sejm were held on Sunday PiS could count on 33 percent. votes (an increase of 4 percentage points compared to the survey conducted two weeks ago). Civic Coalition would receive 24.1 percent (an increase by 0.1 percentage point), and the third result would be Poland 2050 with the support of 13.1 percent (decrease by 1.8 percentage points)
I assess the results of the survey as relatively good news for Law and Justice. Why relatively good? Because in the context of other polls, this support is not impressive. It hesitates, but drops significantly in some polls
– she told PAP prof. Marciniak.
„The permanent electorate positively assesses the entirety of this party’s rule since 2015 “
The political scientist noted that a 4-point increase is also a moderately positive news for PiS, because 3 percentage points is the limit of the statistical error.
The news is that support is not declining, but is lingering compared to the last measurement
– she emphasized.
According to the political scientist, the PiS result consists of many factors.
Firstly, PiS has a permanent constituency with a conservative – one could say – right-wing orientation, which is faithful to PiS, including because it assesses positively the entirety of this party’s rule since 2015
– she pointed.
„This does not mean that the PiS electorate does not assess the mistakes that this party makes “
The second factor, she said, is that some voters are still convinced that in the case of PiS rule, strengths prevail over weaknesses.
This does not mean that the PiS electorate does not judge the mistakes that this party is making, or the difficulties it faces as the ruling party
– she reserved.
The third one has to do with current politics.
Firstly, the protests of women in the streets have died down, so the atmosphere and social mood are calming down a bit
– she said.
Despite the extremely difficult epidemic situation, the government, in the person of the minister of health and the prime minister, communicated on an ongoing basis issues related to it
– she added.
„The improvement of the communication style of the minister and the prime minister is also such a contribution to this 4-point growth “
As she pointed out, this communication is a sign of maintaining relations with citizens, in particular with one’s own voters.
This is not perfect communication yet, but it seems to me that the improvement of the communication style of the minister and the prime minister is also such a contribution to this 4-point growth
– she assessed.
Prof. Marciniak, in the context of the polls, also drew attention to another factor.
Usually voters, when they leave “their” political party, have a ready alternative, that is the feeling that they have someone to invest in politically in place of the previously supported formation. There is a problem in this case
– she said.
Yes, the largest opposition party in this poll has over 20 percent. This is a good result for the voters of the Civic Coalition. However, the way the main opposition party operates, the evaluation of its programming offer is such that it is not an alternative to the so-called soft PiS voters who would be ready to support another party, looking for a similarity to their ideological orientations. These are center-right voters. They are both in the right-wing party of the PO and in PiS. It is this inability to find a sensible political alternative that makes such support in this poll
She explained.
„This poll is a promising signal for PiS “
These factors come together. Of course, to talk about a trend, you need several measurements, preferably from the same laboratory and the same methodology. This poll is a promising signal for PiS
– summed up the political scientist. Prof. Marciniak also commented on the result Confederationwhich, according to an IBRIS poll, would not get to the Sejm, having obtained 2.3 percent. support (decrease by 3 percentage points).
„Voters who supported the Confederation due to common sense thinking about the economy have passed away “
The Confederation gained support in the parliamentary and presidential elections thanks to an offer for voters about free market thinking. Of course, she emphasized her ideological “other leg”, but the ideas were publicized more in the economic sphere than in the ideological sphere. Now it turns out that it is not so, that it is a party that stands firmly on the basis of its right-wing and national views
– explained the political scientist.
In her opinion, the explanation for the decline in support for the Confederation is therefore very simple.
The voters who supported this party for their common sense thinking about the economy have left. Now this thinking about the economy is not breaking through. A tough, ideological national attitude is breaking through, which is also largely anti-EU and xenophobic. For those who trusted the Confederation in 2019, this does not suit. This is not the Confederation they voted for
– she said.
The survey of the Market and Social Research Institute (IBRiS), commissioned by wp.pl, was conducted on November 13-14 on a sample of 1,100 people using the telephone standardized computer-assisted questionnaire (CATI) interviews.
aw / PAP
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