Tom, what prevents the Kremlin from declaring a general mobilization?
‘A global mobilization would have a huge impact on Russian society. War is far away for many people, especially in big cities. And the Kremlin keeps the war away from them, mostly sending soldiers from poor provinces. Russia has never declared war on Ukraine. Declaring a general mobilization would mean the defeat of Putin’s “special military operation”. ‘
At the same time, Russia needs more frontline manpower to regain its influence over Ukraine. Will this ultimately require general mobilization?
“There are alternatives to general mobilization if Putin does not dare to do so. There is a lot between enlisting all the grown men in the country and doing nothing. At the moment, Russia is actively recruiting people for the army. For example, Russian railways were ordered to persuade employees to go to Ukraine. And the salaries of the soldiers have been raised. Now you can earn more than 200 thousand rubles per month, which is converted into more than three thousand euros per month. This is really high by Russian standards. You will also receive all kinds of bonuses, a guarantee that your children will have a place in a good university and a good pension.
“Russia can do more to send people serving in Ukraine. It could encourage them to change their status and become professional soldiers without having to spend a full year in the military. But of course it’s getting harder and harder. The conscripts also see that it is war, that Russia is doing badly and that therefore their lives would be in danger ».
Is it likely that the Kremlin will eventually intervene to bring more soldiers to the front?
“Russia has created a front line over two thousand kilometers long. You need a lot of soldiers to keep it up. Now not only are they being pushed back to the north-east, but they are also having a hard time in the south near Kherson, although they hold up better there. So the military has to do something.
Putin is the leader of a world power, he has never lost a military conflict. Russia is not used to losing. This Ukrainian counter-offensive is indeed the biggest defeat that Russia has suffered since its withdrawal from Kiev. And it doesn’t bode well for the next few months.
“It is surprising that relatively few Russian soldiers were present during the counterattack in the north-east. The army was made up largely of fighters from Luhansk, the Ukrainian province that Russia has largely controlled since 2014. So apparently Russia is really short on soldiers. ‘
Are young Russians willing to go to the battlefield?
“Young Russians in big cities don’t. They have a lifestyle reminiscent of that of the young people of the Netherlands. They live in modern cities and don’t want to risk their lives for Russia.
‘The people who might be sensitive to this are young people from poor areas where there is little other work. The salaries now distributed are much higher than the average Russian salary. This can make going to Ukraine attractive. ‘
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