LONDON — The World Health Organization has declared the current outbreaks of mpox in the Congo and other parts of Africa a global emergency, requiring urgent action to stop the transmission of the virus.
Sweden has since announced it had found its first case of a new form of mpox previously seen only in Africa in a traveller, while other European health authorities have warned more imported cases were likely.
Here’s a look at mpox and the likelihood of it spreading further:
Is mpox going to trigger another pandemic?
That seems highly unlikely. Pandemics, including most recently swine flu and COVID-19, are typically caused by airborne viruses that spread rapidly, even through people who may not show symptoms.
MPox, also known as monkeypox, is spread primarily through skin-to-skin contact with infected people or their soiled clothing or bed linens. It often causes visible skin lesions that may make people less likely to be in close contact with others.
To stay safe, experts recommend avoiding close physical contact with anyone who has MPOX-like lesions, not sharing utensils, clothing or bedding, and practicing good hygiene, such as washing your hands regularly.
On Friday, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said it was “very likely” there were more imported cases of mpox from Africa, but the chances of local outbreaks in Europe were very low.
Scientists say the risk to the general population in countries without ongoing mpox outbreaks is low.
How is mpox different from COVID-19?
Mpox spreads very slowly, unlike the coronavirus. Soon after the coronavirus was identified in China, the number of cases increased exponentially from several hundred to several thousand; in a single week in January, the case count increased more than tenfold.
By March 2020, when the WHO described COVID-19 as a pandemic, there were more than 126,000 infections and 4,600 deaths, about three months after the coronavirus was first identified.
By contrast, since 2022, mpox cases have reached nearly 100,000 infections worldwide, with around 200 deaths, according to the WHO.
Vaccines and treatments are available for mpox unlike in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We have what we need to stop mpox,” said Dr. Chris Beyrer, director of Duke University’s Global Health Institute. “This is not the same situation we faced during COVID, when there were no vaccines and no antivirals.”
How quickly will these mpox outbreaks be stopped?
It is unclear. The 2022 mpox outbreak in more than 70 countries slowed within months, largely thanks to vaccination programs and the availability of drugs for at-risk populations in rich countries.
Right now, most MPOX cases are in Africa, with 96% of those cases and deaths occurring in Congo, one of the world’s poorest countries whose health system has largely collapsed under the strain of malnutrition, cholera and measles. Although Congolese officials have requested 4 million vaccines from donors, they have yet to receive any.
Despite the WHO declaring mpox a global emergency in 2022, Africa has received almost no vaccines or treatments.
Duke University’s Beyrer said it was in the world’s interest to invest now in crushing outbreaks in Africa.
“We are actually in a good position to control this pandemic, but we have to make the decision to prioritize Africa,” he said.
