Observers say dictator Alexander Lukashenko rarely attends funerals, but in the case of Vladimir Makei, he was the first to greet the deceased.
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The funeral of Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, who died suddenly last Saturday, was held yesterday in Minsk. McKay died suddenly at the age of 64. The official media of the Belarusian regime of Alexander Lukashenko continued to talk of “untimely death” until Tuesday, without giving the cause of death.
Unofficially, there is talk of a heart attack that occurred in his home, in the elite district of the Drozdos government buildings in Minsk. Previously, McKay had not noticed any health problems, so it is suspected that the minister’s departure was not natural. The politician known as “Lukashenko Machiavelli” has been in charge of Minsk’s foreign affairs since 2012 and was actually the second most influential person in the country.
Is Putin fed up?
Observers point out that it doesn’t matter how McKay left, because the main question is the aftermath. Especially in the context of the Ukrainian war. In any case, the newly appointed will not be able to continue the clever policy of his predecessor at that level, but it is important which group he comes from.
Some commentators and representatives of the Belarusian opposition, following the events, expect more significant and perhaps unpleasant events in Belarus for the rest of Europe in the near future.
Rumors have long circulated about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dissatisfaction with his “Belarusian partner” Lukashenko and his intention to replace him with someone else in order to be able to fully involve the Belarusian military in the war against Ukraine and exclude any deviation from Minsk .
McKay’s departure is believed to have significantly weakened the survival of the Lukashenko regime in the face of pressure from the Kremlin, and the full inclusion of Belarus in the Russian Federation is perhaps expected. Theoretically, any protests by the population would be suppressed with the help of the Russian army and special forces.
“Putin got tired of persuading cunning Lukashenko to invade Ukraine. Therefore, to begin with, instead of Lukashenko in Belarus, an experienced diplomat, longtime foreign minister Mackay, who played a delicate game, suddenly died between the West and the Kremlin, as Lukashenko’s confidant in relations with the West [ar to] showed Lukashenko how easily he solves his problems in Belarus. Now Lukashenko has remained face to face with Putin, but communication channels with the West have been cut off,” Ukrainian political scientist Victor Nebozhenko wrote on Facebook.
Oleksei Arestovych, adviser to the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, disagrees with him, who in an interview with commentator Mark Feigin calls McKay’s poisoning speech a conspiracy theory. If the Kremlin really wanted to remove Lukashenko, it would do so without such warnings.
According to Arestovich, McKay was indeed among the few most capable people in Lukashenko’s circle: “What will happen after his death, let’s see. But I don’t think it is possible to change a social system like Belarus, its politics, with the death of a person, even a very important one. Unless, of course, it concerns the death of Lukashenko himself”.
There are about five factions in the Belarusian dictator’s entourage, so further conclusions can be drawn when it becomes clear who the new minister will come from, Arestovič warned. Meanwhile, Igar Tishkevich, a Belarusian political and economic analyst at the Institute for the Future of Ukraine, finds it significant that in 2020, when mass protests began, the relatively pro-Western Mackay was seen as a potential replacement by Lukashenko.
So it will be interesting to see what happens next with the hitherto influential McKay group. If it disintegrates and the power structures close to the dictator gain absolute supremacy, Belarus will continue to sink into the “wild and narrow-minded nature”, opening up the possibility for the Kremlin to destroy the remaining elements of Belarusian sovereignty. It should be noted that McKay was a former GRU cadre officer of the USSR Military Intelligence Service, and for this reason he was respected at least in the circles of the military and special services of Belarus.
Just one tool
“It will be difficult for Lukashenko to find an equal replacement for McKay, given his experience and influence in the nomenclature,” writes Belarusian expert Artyom Shraybmans on the website of the Carnegie Center in Moscow. In this political situation, the dictator needed him as a confidant, while from the point of view of foreign policy it does not matter who leads industry in Minsk.
As long as Lukashenko is in power, the West will not talk to the regime, but an outspoken and unsmiling person dressed in a diplomatic suit and with “tin eyes” will be able to build some kind of relationship with the remaining partners, such as described by Jurys Drakohrusts, the commentator of the Belarusian service of “Radio Svoboda”.
“Mackay was an instrument of the dictator’s policy. In its place will come the same tool that will carry out a person’s will,” exiled Belarusian politician Pavel Latushko told the “Voice of America” broadcaster. According to Latushko, the suppression of the 2020 people’s revolution, the creation of a migrant crisis on the borders of the Baltic states and Poland, as well as the war in Ukraine had already minimized Mackay’s role in the country.
It is very likely that McKay spent the last few months of his life under constant long-term stress, which also led to his death. Moreover, there is nothing to pity him, because Mackay actively supported the Lukashenko regime, ensured its survival and participated in terror and repression with his decisions, reproach representatives of the opposition.
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