Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The energy crisis has hit Europe and a number of world countries such as the UK, India, and China. Indonesia is flooded with profits from the energy crisis experienced by these various countries. However, be careful there is an economic impact that will follow it later.
One of the opportunities that can be obtained by Indonesia from this energy crisis is an increase in commodity prices and an increase in demand for key commodities from Indonesia. Due to the energy crisis, coal prices have doubled from US$ 100 per ton to US$ 200 per ton.
BCA Chief Economist David Sumual said that the abundant demand for key commodities in Indonesia was one of the reasons he changed his economic growth projection from around 3.5% to 3.9% to 4% this year. However, this advantage can only be enjoyed by Indonesia for the next two quarters.
In addition to the energy crisis, in China also experienced a weakening in the property business. This makes China’s economy only grow 4.9% in the third quarter of 2021.
The realization of China’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2021, which reached 7.9%, was far below expectations of economic growth of 5% as predicted by analysts.
By sector, industrial production growth slowed to 3.1% last September. On the other hand, retail rose to 4.4%. For urban unemployment at 4.9% level last month.
The property crisis experienced by the giant Evergrande is said to be the culprit behind this slowdown. In addition, the looming energy crisis has also slowed industrial output.
Seeing the phenomenon of China’s slowing economic growth, David is worried that it will become a ‘time bomb’ for the Indonesian economy.
“The impact of the economic slowdown in China to Indonesia may be possible. Property is weakening, there is an energy crisis, and perhaps a slowdown in consumption,” David explained to CNBC Indonesia, Monday (18/10/2021).
“Coal prices have also increased in the last quarter, the price of CPO, minerals, and property is track down. Maybe next year it will start to slow down. We hope to be compensated by consumption and investment,” David continued.
|
Photo: CNBC Indonesia TV Depressed by Property Sector, China’s Economy Grows 4.9% in Q3-2021- – |
Aldian Taloputra, Economist at Bank Standard Chartered Indonesia, said that every 1% of China’s economic slowdown will affect Indonesia by 0.03%. It is quite small even though the trade and investment relations between the two countries are very close.
“This is because the Indonesian economy is more supported by domestic demand and the goods we export to China are mostly energy and metal commodities, which are currently in high demand from China,” said Aldian.
(me/me)
– .
