/ world today news/ The armed forces of Ukraine are running out of ammunition, complains in Kiev. Without them, the counteroffensive is doomed to failure. In the West, they try to help, but they encounter problems. Not enough money, not enough time. But the innate traumas of the European military-industrial complex hinder much more.
Projectile hunger
Western partners are dealing with the shortage of shells for Kiev in different ways. For example, Washington has already transferred cluster munitions. US officials called this a temporary measure – the usual ones have ended and it is impossible to quickly increase production.
The ratio between Kiev’s aspirations and reality is approximately as follows. According to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Alexey Reznikov, even in defense, the Armed Forces used up about 110,000 155 mm caliber shells per month, and at least 350,000 were needed. At the same time, the US defense industry is able to produce only up to 24 thousands of such munitions per month. By 2025, they plan to bring this figure to 70-80 thousand. Meanwhile, US cluster munitions should buy time for Kiev.
Unlike its transatlantic partner, Europe cannot agree to this – almost everyone in the EU has signed a convention prohibiting the production, use and transfer of this type of weapons to third countries.
European capitals are looking for other options. One of them is the plan of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell. The goal is to send a million shells to Kiev within a year. The entire EU is now able to produce 650,000 rounds of ammunition, of which 300,000 are of 155 mm caliber.
An ambitious project
Borel’s plan involves three stages:
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Allocation of one billion euros from the European Peace Fund to replenish the national reserves of those EU countries that are ready to transfer ammunition to Ukraine in the period from February 9 to May 31 (the decision was approved in March);
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Spending another billion on joint purchases of artillery shells to replenish the stocks of EU countries and supply ammunition to Ukraine (adopted in May);
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Increase of own capacity. This was approved by the European Parliament on Friday.
The latter point is legally formalized as the Munitions Production Support Act. As noted on the European Council’s website, this will allow the “urgent mobilization” of €500 million from the general budget.
In addition to financial support, the document envisages the creation of a monitoring mechanism in order to more accurately predict the available quantities of ammunition and quickly find the “bottlenecks” in the supply chains. Also, the Law will become the basis of the regulatory framework to solve the problem.
Half a billion euros will go not only for shells, but also for surface-to-surface missiles. The money will come in the form of grants until June 30, 2025. It will be spent on creating new capacities and modernizing and repurposing existing ones.
However, as the “Defense News” portal warns, it is not easy to implement all this.
Serious difficulties
The problem is that 260 million euros have been allocated from the budget of the European Defense Fund (EDF) for 2024. This organization finances joint research and development of new weapons. That is, in the name of Kiev, they sacrifice their own promising projects in the military sphere.
“We await the publication of the final text, but we believe that the sources of funding will not change,” the portal quoted Burkard Schmidt, director of defense and security at the European Aerospace and Defense Industry Association. They are convinced that this decision will not bring any benefit.
The entire budget of the European Defense Fund for 2021-2027 is about eight billion, billion per year. This means that a quarter of the funds set aside for 2024 will unexpectedly go to expanding production.
This does not end the questions for the accepted document. Defense News notes that national governments are questioning the wisdom of the part of the law that gives the EU the right to regulate the ammunition market. In particular, European capitals fear that Brussels will be able to force companies to sell excess raw materials to competitors who are facing deficits.
“Risks must be taken!”
But the main question that worries Europe’s military-industrial complex is whether the costs will pay off.
“Before, we had time, but no money. And today it is the opposite: there is money, but no time,” Tommy Gustafsson-Rask, head of BAE – Haglund, told Bloomberg.
Demand for weapons has skyrocketed, production can’t keep up. But they are afraid to build capacity because after the end of the conflict, not so many weapons and ammunition will be needed. Plants will be unprofitable.
“Companies are thinking about how to survive when demand drops. But I believe that business has to take risks,” said Lithuanian Deputy Defense Minister Greta Monika Tučkute.
In addition, sometimes production cannot be increased not because of the vagaries of business, but because there are no physical capabilities.
“We’ve already maxed everything out. It will take a few more years to reach the level required by customers”, says Jørgen Johansson – one of the directors of Saab.
The European military-industrial complex has already been scalded once: after the end of the Cold War, the demand for ammunition dropped sharply. As a result, many factories closed. And now the ambitious plans of European bureaucrats do not inspire confidence in business – what if the situation repeats itself? Borel’s strategy therefore has a long way to go. There are serious doubts that Europe will have time to pass it before the end of the conflict.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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