The mathematician Prof. Nikolai Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on May 16, 2022. Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile:
Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of 16 May 2022
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As always, first the pandemic, then the war.
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I was gone for a few days and you were in the hands of the yurts and reviewers from Gank’s Cafe (they were given the opportunity to replace me once again). What we learned from them about the virus and the war is that I’m not only a fool, I’m a simpleton. Well, they can do that. Vitanov’s iron theorem
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The haters are just howling and roaring, they can’t give a decent forecast
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And now essentially.
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Check the pandemic situation today
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1. The “Second Foundation” scenario successfully completed its task in 45 days – the social system to go through the holidays without shocks from the coronavirus. There is a three-factor index that I consider, which takes into account the morbidity and occupancy of beds. Today, the whole country entered the blue zone there. The action of the scenario “Blue Summer” – day 1 begins. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer. As I predicted. Let’s see how long it will be stable.
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2. The general situation – we are waiting with boredom for the modified Omicron to finally be able to ignite the diffuse spread And so for 46 days.
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Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.88.
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It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
Blue Summer inherits the unshakable stability of Harry Seldon and the Second Foundation. There is no emergency epidemic, no measures. The health system is bored waiting for the attack of the modified Omicron. The plan to push the modified Omicron to a warmer period of time and to fail its attempt to roam Bulgaria is working.
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3. Superfire check. Not today.
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Let’s see some control numbers for today from today’s diffuse distribution index
For the country – 0.11
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Sofia-city – 0.15
Plovdiv – 0.11
Burgas – 0.07
Varna – 0.06
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Along the southern borders
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Blagoevgrad – 0.08
Kardzhali – 0.12
Smolyan – 0.11
Haskovo – 0.11
Yambol – 0.11
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We know:
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
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Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The sinister professor’s plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread is working. It’s been 46 days.
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For information – the indices in several other cities
Pleven – 0.07
Razgrad – 0.07
Ruse – 0.09
Silistra – 0.13
Sliven – 0.11
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I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day. As you can see, there are no problems. As sung in the song – The moon sleeps. Kovid – the crisis is over. Well, let there be at least one crushed crisis of all that has gotten on our heads. At least not to think so.
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3. Check for overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
The health care system is spinning its chains and whistling about the Kovid crisis. Crisis-o-o-o-o, where are you, crisis-o-o-o? She’s gone.
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4. Check for total lockdown. A total lockdown?
There will be none. I wrote to you a long time ago – tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. Here, we entered the “Blue Summer” scenario according to plan.
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5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. The number will increase.
But slowly
6. Conclusion from the inspection – and today, 46 days after the elimination of the emergency epidemic situation, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is increasingly being achieved.
The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail.
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7. There are changes in the maps. I asked the yurts if Sofia-city would leave the red zone or not. In response, I learned that in addition to being a fool, I am also a simpleton. That’s right. Not everyone can be smart and beautiful. There must be one who is a fool and a simpleton. You look at the map and see that there is no more red on it. And the yellow will start to increase. Slowly – slowly.
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Now for the war.
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1. We have already understood – the war will be long and will develop slowly. Why? As a consequence of the principle of enslavement of Hacken, a scenario of slow change of circumstances has stabilized. Therefore.
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2. Let us now define what to expect from this scenario. First of all, as I have written many times, the Russian army does not have the strength to surround the entire Kramatorsk defensive area of the Ukrainian army. So far a large boiler is not expected. This depends on the size of the Kramatorsk group of the Ukrainian army, and it is declining. The Russians are expected to try to make small chops and the first candidate is the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk boiler. Test of the success of the Russians – the conquest of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
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But there was a counter-offensive of the Ukrainians. Let me ask again – something over 10,000 people? There is no. So let’s define what will be the success of this counter-offensive and see what happens with this criterion. The success of the counter-offensive will be to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. The key to this is the control of raisins. So the criterion – whether Izyum was captured by the Ukrainian army. Yes – the counter-offensive is successful, no – it is not successful. On the way to this goal, we are looking to see if there are any Russian troops.
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Okay – let’s summarize.
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On the part of the Russians. Are Kramatorsk and Slavyansk taken – no. Is there a cutlet – there is Severodenetsk – Lisichank.
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On the part of the Ukrainians – whether Izyum was conquered – no. Is there a chop – no.
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Conclusion – the superiority of the Russians in the battle for the Kramatorsk arc. For now.
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3. But Vitanov actually expects. Let’s recall what Vitanov said months ago. The main battle in this war will be the Kramatorsk Arc. The Russians have no numbers to effectively encircle Kyiv or occupy all of Ukraine. Therefore, this is not their goal. Their targets are Donbass, Kharkiv, Odessa – all in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Vitanov wrote – if the Russians win the battle of the Kramatorsk Arc, then Hapkov, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye will be hot. Do you remember the Yurdish roar and the numerous reviews from Gank’s Cafe – will Vitanov tell us where the main battle will be. So where is the main battle? Where Vitanov said two months ago – there he is.
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4. The propaganda war. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. In our country – you know, I grabbed my head from amateurism in pro-Ukrainian propaganda. The system was crammed into an attractor, where people are no longer impressed. And it will be difficult to kill her from there. We need capacity of the rank of THAT MAN that he said (quote two from THAT MAN, not Bismarck)
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…. Dostoevsky with a few bold steps was ahead of his time. You follow him with fear, disbelief, shock, but still – you follow him. He doesn’t let you go, you have to follow him. He did not come from anywhere and does not belong anywhere. And yet, he will always remain a Russian …
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Well, the man knew Dostoevsky well and today his name is nominal.
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And finally, Bismarck, of course. Some are shaking with anger that I know Bismarck well. Read Bismarck’s nonsense, he knew the Russians well and could handle them. That is why I am quoting it for you. Bismarck is the hill from which you can look at this war and see what it is.
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Here is today’s quote from him
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“If you want to make the world a fool, tell him the truth.”
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Bismarck has noticed that no one believes the truth. Here’s something to think about now. Once upon a time there was a competition for the political song “Alen Mak”. Now a question that reveals an ugly truth – was the Ukrainian song the best at Eurovision this year? As you know, my opinion is – amateurism in propaganda. Which always turns against you when the people are hungry enough.
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Okay, I’ll stop here for today.
So, we have to see what will happen.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you
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