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In the first I&O seat poll of November, conducted in collaboration with the BNNVARA talk show Khalid & SophiePieter Omtzigt’s NSC goes from 27 to 29 seats, D66 also gains 2 seats and rises to 8. The VVD remains at 26 seats and GroenLinks-PvdA loses one seat and becomes the third major party with 24 seats.
BBB’s decline is dramatic. At the last elections in March this year, it was by far the largest and the favorite of dissatisfied voters, but it has now fallen further from 11 to 8 seats. The PVV remains on 18 seats. The SP gains one more and comes to 6. The Party for the Animals, which has been plagued by internal strife in recent weeks, drops two seats to 5. DENK benefits from the anger about Palestine and also rises 1 seat to 4.
The ultra-right parties BVNL and JA21 both do not get further than 1 seat and BIJ1 and 50Plus disappear from the House according to this poll.
In an explanation, the pollsters note: “Pieter Omtzigt, with his NSC, has succeeded in connecting well with the positions of his supporters and in attracting the most important themes (immigration, social security). Moreover, NSC has succeeded in attracting voters who, until recently, were floating. There was uncertainty about his program for a long time, but some of the voters who initially waited are now choosing NSC.” Omtzigt thus benefits from the strategy of the VVD, which dropped the cabinet in order to make the elections about migration. Pieter Omtzigt is also seen by voters as someone who is “expert” and receives a 7. VVD party leader Yesilgöz a 6.
GroenLinks-PvdA, on the other hand, has not yet succeeded in putting climate change and the gap between rich and poor, their most important themes, at the top of the agenda. Timmermans also scores less, a 5, but that is mainly because his – right-wing – opponents do not like him. Voters from his own party are positive about him, although there is also criticism of his debate performance at RTL. A GL-PvdA voter: “I think his ideas are very good, but I didn’t think he was convincing and his appearance is too closed.” A bright spot for GroenLinks-PvdA is that the voter potential – the people who may vote for the party – has increased to 26 percent. Omtzigt also leads the way here with no less than 36 percent. The VVD remains stable at 23 percent.
I&O Research also shows how the issues that voters care about have changed in recent months. In March, migration was the least important theme, but now climate and poverty reduction have been overtaken.
Omtzigt has so far been left untouched by his competitors because they fear that criticism of him will work like a boomerang. Only Laurens Dassen from Volt entered the battle. VVD party leader Dilan Yesilgöz has now seen it long enough and tackled the Twente messiah for the fact that he did not have his own party program calculated, and did not want to open up later, but now did the calculations of the EO studio. other parties sit down to comment.
Opinion site EW reports that Omtzigt plans to move into the Torentje: “If Pieter Omtzigt wins the elections, he will take office as Prime Minister of the next cabinet, provided he can combine that with his family. “He is now discussing this at home,” says Nicolien van Vroonhoven, number 2 on the list of the New Social Contract.”
2023-11-08 19:45:23
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