Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees that Indonesia’s economic recovery is still very restrained this year. Even the economic recovery this year tends to be like a logo brand apparel Nike.
This means that Indonesia’s economic recovery will be slower than the previous estimate which could be in the form of a V, that is, immediately rising sharply after reaching the lowest point.
“We see that the Indonesian economy is more likely to experience a” Nike Swoosh “recovery than a V-shaped recovery,” said IMF Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath, in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook quoted on Wednesday (14/10/2020).
The IMF estimates that Indonesia’s economy will shrink 2.21% from the initial prediction due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which pressured the economy both from the demand and supply side.
The Indonesian economy is considered to be recovering gradually starting next year, which is predicted to grow 4.43%. The recovery in 2021 will occur because there will be improvements in public consumption which will restore purchasing power.
Then, companies that are currently being hit will begin to recover, although it will take time to make adjustments to start production and investment.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s inflation rate is estimated at 1.95% or below the low point of the Bank Indonesia target range of 2% – 4%. Then, the current account deficit (CAD) in 2020 is projected to fall to -1.49% of GDP.
“In the following year, along with strengthening domestic demand and accelerating business activity, the inflation rate is projected to rise to 2.92% and CAD to widen again to -2.40% of GDP,” wrote the IMF.
In the report entitled A Long and Difficult Ascent, the IMF has indeed revised its ‘forecast’ for global economic growth and a number of countries.
The IMF now estimates that the world economy in 2020 will experience a contraction (negative growth) of 4.4%. Improved compared to the projection released in April, namely -4.9%.
In June, the IMF estimated that Indonesia’s economy would contract by 0.3% this year. In the October report, the forecast worsened to a contraction of -1.5%.
“Almost all developing countries are expected to record economic contraction this year. Meanwhile, countries such as India and Indonesia are struggling to bring the pandemic under control,” wrote the IMF report.
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Photo: IMF imf- – |
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