This is the opinion of Geir Hågen Karlsen, Lieutenant Colonel and Dean of Strategic Communications at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
As drones rain down on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, Putin’s war machine is losing ground. Now the Russians risk being driven out of the occupied territories.
Karlsen interprets Russia’s new drone offensive, and close cooperation with Iran, as a confirmation that the Kremlin is becoming desperate and without means.
– It will probably have a high price
Iranian drones are used in Putin’s terrorist war against the Ukrainian civilian population. Photo: Stringer / Reuters
– It’s a sign of weakness and shows that they have very few options left. We see that they are not successful on the battlefield. Therefore, they use drones and missiles in hopes of putting pressure on the Ukrainian population and politicians. By destroying civilian infrastructure, for example by cutting off the electricity supply, they will make it more difficult to stay in Ukraine when it gets colder. This could once again create a new wave of refugees, Karlsen warns.
– In addition, they add recently mobilized people with little experience and suffering heavy losses. That way, they might be able to keep the front part reasonably well over the winter. This is a risky strategy that is likely to come at a high price, Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen told ABC Nyheter.
– Russia’s overall strategy towards the West
He believes that the Kremlin’s main strategy now will be to divide unity in the West, and thereby create a wedge in the hitherto strong European alliance to help Ukraine militarily, politically and economically.
– I think that Russia’s overall strategy towards the West is to bet on social and political unrest in Europe due to energy shortages, high food prices and generally difficult living conditions. The hope is that this will ultimately lead the West to pressure Ukraine to find a Russian-friendly solution. They try to create fear and uncertainty with the help of drones, cyber threats and attacks and the risk of possible sabotage.
– Everyone agrees with that
– What will the US do if the Russians cross a red line, for example using tactical nuclear weapons or chemical weapons? Is it conceivable for the US to bomb Russian targets outside Russia, without NATO being directly involved?
– No. I think everyone in NATO thinks it is important to stick together and work together in what is considered a common challenge. This is the biggest threat NATO has ever faced. At the same time, it is a situation in which we do not want to enter into conflict with Russia. Everyone agrees that a direct conflict would be much more serious and could have dramatic consequences. The West has clearly warned that the use of nuclear weapons will have dire consequences for Russia. On the other hand, NATO does not want to specify to the opponent what this entails, notes the lieutenant colonel.
– Nobody wants to risk it
Leave little chance for Russia if there should be a military confrontation between NATO and Russia. The same goes for the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.
– They don’t have the military might to be successful on the battlefield, so now they attack civilian targets instead. The West will resist the pressure and do what is necessary. If Russia succeeds in blackmail, it will come back later. Nobody wants to take risks, warns the strategy teacher.
– The biggest mistake they made
– If we had turned the clock back eight months, what do you think Putin would have done differently and that in theory they could have succeeded in the invasion then?
– The Russians probably learned a lot, but in war you never get a second round. Make your mistakes and suffer losses. The biggest mistake they made was that they completely lost the strategy. Putin thought that the Ukrainians would surrender like in Crimea in 2014. Instead, the opposite happened. The Russians have lost a lot, both people, equipment and motivation. Furthermore, the Russian arms industry has been curtailed due to sanctions.
– What do you think Putin thinks about the situation right now?
– I think Putin would like to sign a truce just to take a break. So he could have accumulated forces and mobilized further. I don’t think it’s Putin’s nature to give in. The regime is willing to lose many people as long as it does not shake Russia’s stability. Right now they are probably doing what it takes to save what can be saved.
– Nothing to indicate that the Russians have the ability
– What is the idea behind the accumulation of Russian forces together with military units in Belarus? Is it conceivable that Putin wants to open a new front and attack Ukraine from the north again?
– I think the strategy is to bind the Ukrainian forces. There is nothing to suggest that the Russians have the ability to open a whole new front. They are struggling both in the east and in the south of Ukraine, so it will last. I doubt that Belarus will enter militarily. It will be very unpopular among the population and will lead to major demonstrations. Lukashenko’s regime nearly fell two years ago after the 2020 presidential election. Things are still simmering under the hood in Belarus. If they are thrown into a new war, Lukashenko will be very afraid of the stability of the regime. I think the Russians are too. If they were to enter from the north, this would have a limited military effect. This in turn could trigger major protests, which could extend to Russia. I think it is a big concern.
– We must be prepared for bad surprises
– How do you think the war has developed by the new year?
– If there are any changes, I think the Ukrainians will probably advance further in their advancement. In any case, I think we have to take into account that it will be a long-term conflict. The worse things get for the Russians, the more drastic measures they will come up with. We must be prepared that there will be some nasty surprises, warns Geir Hågen Karlsen.
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