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Norwegian expert casts doubt on flight control theory

On Saturday evening, July 16, a Ukrainian Antonov An-12 cargo plane reports that it has problems. At 19.42 the plane asks for permission to land in Kavala, a small town in northern Greece.

No one hears any more from the plane.

Exploded

A little over fifteen minutes after the last radio contact, crashes the burning plane into a cornfield in the small village of Palaiochorijust outside Kavala, where it explodes.

About 1,600 people live in Palaiochori.

Planes don’t often crash here.

And at least not as an exploding sea of ​​flame.

The latter can be explained by the fact that this aircraft is loaded with 11.5 tonnes of weapons and land mines. Explosives from the plane spread over a radius of one kilometer from the wreckage, according to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini.

Where exactly were these weapons going?

BIG JOB: Fire and rescue crews at the scene on 16 July. Photo: EUROKINISSI / REUTERS

The 1,600 inhabitants can hear explosions well into Sunday.

The emergency services spend several days trying to find the eight dead, all of whom were Ukrainians.

Known arms dealer involved

Now writing German wave that the weapons that the plane was carrying were probably produced by Slobodan Tesic, who is allegedly one of the biggest arms dealers in the Balkans and who has long been on the US sanctions list.

According to Deutsche Welle, Serbia is one of Europe’s most important arms producers, and offers everything from small arms and mines to artillery, tanks, combat aircraft and missile systems.

According to the newspaper, Tesic is often involved when Serbian weapons are sold illegally. He was on the US sanctions list from 2003 to 2013, after illegally selling weapons to Liberia, and was placed there again in 2017 for more illegal sales.

The 64-year-old was also central to the so-called Krusik scandal, which was revealed in 2019.

EXTENSIVE WORK: Bioweapons experts on their way to the wreckage on Sunday 17 July.  Photo: Sakis Mitrolidis / AFP / NTB

EXTENSIVE WORK: Bioweapons experts on their way to the wreckage on Sunday 17 July. Photo: Sakis Mitrolidis / AFP / NTB

His companies then bought weapons from the state-owned arms manufacturer Krusik at far below market price, and sold the weapons abroad for a significantly higher price.

This also happened despite the fact that another state-owned company is responsible for Serbian arms sales abroad.

– Does not always follow the rules

According to an expert, Serbia is also not picky about where the weapons are sold.

– The Serbian state is trying to squeeze every dinar out of this industry. The limit is for exports to countries under UN sanctions and countries involved in armed conflicts, but Serbia does not always follow these rules, says Vuk Viksanovic at Belgrade’s Center for Security Policy.

As recently as February this year, according to Deutsche Welle, Serbian journalists revealed that Serbian weapons had been delivered to Myanmar, even after the military coup there in February 2021.

On the way to Bangladesh

The plane that crashed in Greece was on its way to Bangladesh, via Jordan, but Deutsche Welle speculates that it may actually have been on its way to Ukraine, although it took off from Nis in Serbia and flew south instead of east.

In any case, the incident has soured diplomatic ties between Greece and Serbia, and between Greece and Ukraine. Greek authorities have sent a formal complaint to both countries that they were not notified in advance about the plane’s cargo.

Both the company Meridian, which owns the plane, and the Serbian Minister of Defense have denied that the plane was on its way to Ukraine.

But the political scientist Deutsche Welle has interviewed still believes that this question is worth pursuing.

– The public deserves answers as to why a Ukrainian plane transported Serbian weapons right now, while a major international conflict is ongoing on Ukrainian territory, Vuksanovic believes in Belgrade.

He suspects that Serbia is trying to balance between appeasing both the West and Russia.

– This means on the one hand arms to Ukraine to appease the West, and on the other hand concessions from Serbia towards Russia. All this is about the Serbian elite’s attempt to balance international power centers in order to obtain favors in return, claims Vuksanovic.

Norwegian expert doubts the Ukraine theory

Associate professor Tom Røseth, who is the main teacher in intelligence and head of the Ukraine program at the Norwegian Defense Academy, noticed the plane crash when it happened.

He is skeptical of the theory that the weapons were going to Ukraine.

SKEPTICAL: Researcher and intelligence expert Tom Røseth.  Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2

SKEPTICAL: Researcher and intelligence expert Tom Røseth. Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2

– There is really nothing abnormal in a Ukrainian company using Antonov aircraft for weapons transport. Norway also hired it when we had to transport weapons to Germany. These are very capable and large cargo planes, which have room for armored vehicles, and which are commonly used for weapons deliveries, says Røseth to TV 2.

He understands the suspicion that the plane was going to Ukraine, but points out that there are several things that speak against this.

– One is that the state of Serbia is unlikely to be seen as a supplier to Ukraine. After all, this was a private company, Valir, which from what I have seen has agreements with the Serbian state. This is also a business with a Ukrainian company that delivers weapons around as usual, and in addition the location matches the direction to Bangladesh, says Røseth.

– At the same time, one could perhaps turn this around and say that the Bangladesh claim could serve as a cover for Serbia defying Russia by selling weapons to Ukraine?

– Yes, I can’t rule it out, but I don’t think the Serbian government will take that risk. There is still a strong identity towards Russia in Serbia, emphasizes Røseth.

The Greek authorities are now working to clean up the aftermath of the plane crash.

– The first estimate is that it will take at least one month to clear the area, local mayor Filippos Anastassiadis told the state TV channel TV ERT last week, according to NTB.

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