Several military experts are now taking the floor for Norway must pick up the pace in strengthening the defence. After a few decades of downsizing the Norwegian armed forces, money and political will are needed to strengthen the military.
– Political consensus must be built on a completely different allocation path than we have been used to in recent years, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, retired lieutenant general and former chief of the Defense Staff.
Defense chief Eirik Kristoffersen has also spoken out to the effect that Norway only has a few years to build up a defense that can better face an aggressive Russia.
– We’re running out of time
– There is a window now that will perhaps last for one, two, perhaps three years, where we have to invest even more in a secure defence, but we are short on time. I just want to clarify that, he emphasizes to NTB and points to Russia.
UNPREDICTABLE: Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen believes it is urgent for Norway to build a strong defence. Here he is at the Cold Response exercise together with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Bjørn Langsem/Dagbladet. view more
– We don’t know what will happen to Russia in three years. It is important for us to face an uncertain and unpredictable world with a strong national defence, says the chief of defence.
A couple of weeks ago, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg was able to state that NATO has signed a contract for the purchase of artillery ammunition for NOK 12.5 billion, part of which will go to Ukraine.
The contract concerns the purchase of 155 mm artillery ammunition which is either delivered to Ukraine, or used to fill other NATO countries’ own stocks.
Disappointing report
In a new one Nupi report written by Ståle Ulriksen, researcher and university lecturer at the Naval War College, he wants to improve the understanding of what Norway can expect to get from military support in war.
If Norway were to be attacked, we can expect very little help from other NATO countries. The report paints a frightening and depressing picture of the prospects for Allied support in the event of war.
The expectations of the US should be toned down, while at the same time Norway and the other allies must recognize that they themselves must contribute much more.
– We are already seeing what happens when Ukraine does not receive enough equipment from its allies to withstand radical Russian bombing and storm attacks. They can give up on taking back the areas that Russia has occupied, and without new weapons they can just give up on pushing the Russians back, says Iver B. Neumann, Russia researcher and director of the research institute Fridtjof Nansens Institute (FNI).
– Must step up efforts
He believes it is high time that Norway steps up its efforts and that the politicians must prioritize strengthening the Norwegian defense significantly.
– If Poland can spend six percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on its defense, Norway must be able to have a target of spending three percent, says Neumann to Dagbladet.
EXPERT: Iver B. Neumann believes Norway should spend three percent of GDP on strengthening the Norwegian defence. Photo: Dagbladet. view more
USA: – The South China Sea is most important
US President Joe Biden has pointed out that the conflict in the South China Sea is the most important for the US, and that the war in Ukraine is not prioritized as highly. In recent months, the conflict between Israel and Gaza has also flared up.
– There is beginning to be talk of Europe’s own military arsenals having to be kept at a high level given the aggressiveness of the Russians. They have militarized their economy somewhat to the extreme. The Kremlin now spends around a third of its entire economy on the war in Ukraine and strengthening its military power, says Neumann.
Must gear up
He believes the numbers in Norway and other European countries must rise to match the build-up currently taking place in Russia.
– Not arming oneself to be ready for possible aggression from a clearly militarized Russia is not exactly good policy, says Neumann.
ASK CIVILIANS TO BE READY: Civilians in the West should prepare for conflict with Russia, says the head of NATO’s military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer Video: AP / NATO. Reporter: Vegard Krüger / Dagbladet TV. view more
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to reduced security and stability in the world. In the Defense Commission’s report presented by Knut Storberget in May 2023, they point out that the war in Ukraine has shown that Europe is completely dependent on the American security guarantee, because European defense capability has been significantly reduced since the 1990s.
– Limited crisis understanding
As a result of the USA’s main focus in the South China Sea, European states must take greater responsibility for defense and security in Europe, believes Iver B. Neumann, Russia researcher and director of the research institute Fridtjof Nansen’s Institute (FNI).
– The understanding of the crisis among the authorities and population in Norway seems so far to a limited extent to reflect the seriousness we are now facing, writes Knut Storberget in the introduction to the Defense Commission’s report.
At a security conference in Sweden recently, Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin asked the Swedes to prepare for war. The Swedish defense chief, Michael Bydén, has stated the same, and the Swedish defense budget is increasing this year by almost NOK 30 billion.
A political naivety
– There is a dramatic and striking difference in how differently one assesses the situations in Norway and Sweden, says Arne Bård Dalhaug, before continuing:
EXPERT: Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug believes that Norway stands out from Sweden and Finland in terms of how the war in Ukraine and the security situation are interpreted. Photo: Lars Eivind Bones / Dagbladet Show more
– The way I read Sweden, they are now building an understanding in the population that it will be necessary to prioritize defense in the future. I do not see that the government in Norway is working to build the same understanding. I don’t have a good answer as to why this is so, but it may be due to political naivety in what help we can get from our allies in the event of a war, says Dalhaug.
The government-appointed defense commission recommends that the defense budget be immediately increased by NOK 30 billion, and then NOK 40 billion a year for ten years.
On top of this, the Defense Commission is asking for a permanent budget increase of NOK 10 billion for operating funds when the period of extra appropriations is over.
Must build a much larger capacity
– I share the opinion that we need a larger army, but I would first ensure a better developed air defence. Here we need significant upgrading where fresh money must be allocated that can change the organization and build a far greater capacity, says Dalhaug.
He points out that Norway needs a major maritime boost, which the chief of defense also confirms in his professional military council. We have a big challenge with the surface structure, staffing and there is a big need for investment.
– We are best placed in the air force. We are working on new surveillance aircraft, we have good transport aircraft and we have a fairly good fighter fleet, provided that there is enough money to buy weapons for them, he says.
250 fighter planes
Together with Sweden, Finland and Denmark, the Nordic countries dispose of around 250 modern combat aircraft. It is the area that is perhaps doing best at the moment.
– Another major challenge is how to recruit and staff a larger organization in a good way. This has been pointed out by both the Chief of Defense and the Defense Commission as an absolutely fundamental prerequisite. It doesn’t help with good equipment if you don’t have competent people to operate it, says Dalhaug.
– The struggle of our generation
There is a demand for fresh money that can increase capacity in the defence. During the Cold War and well into the 1990s, defense budgets were between 3 – 3.5 per cent of GDP.
The Defense Commission writes in its report that it is demanding, but possible to make the necessary priorities to meet a new security policy reality.
THE COMMISSION: In May 2023, the Defense Commission presented its report, which was handed over to Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram. The Defense Commission’s members with leader Knut Storberget in the middle. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB. view more
– More than three percent of GDP was spent on defense during the Cold War. After the Cold War, the defense investment was reduced from three to one and a half percent. The Norwegian authorities have room for maneuver to set the necessary priorities.
Whether it is done is a matter of political will.
An aggressive Russia
And Iver B. Naumann calls for this will.
– They talk about two percent of GDP, but why don’t we talk about three percent. That’s where we were just a generation ago, the last time Russia was aggressive, so why shouldn’t we be there now, he says.
The government is now starting the work, but he believes it is going far too slowly and that two percent is not enough.
– It is no coincidence that the countries that know Russia best are also those that spend potentially the most money to defend themselves militarily against Russia. It is worth noting, says Iver B. Neumann to Dagbladet.
2024-02-04 09:30:55
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