North Korea’s participation in the war in Ukraine is also leading to tensions in South Korea

According to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers are ready to take part in the war in Ukraine. At any time the Russians could send them to the Kursk region, Blinken says.

The fact that North Korea can provide this number of troops is partly due to the size of its military. It is causing unrest in the West, but even closer to home, on the southern side of the Korean peninsula, events in Ukraine are being closely followed.

“North Korea has compulsory military service and it can easily last ten years. Even with a relatively small population of 25 million, you are quickly talking about an army of 1.5 million,” said the studies professor Korean Remco Breuker this week in the USA Podcast The Day.

Most of these soldiers are soldiers who can handle weapons, but have not received much training. They are mainly used in construction projects, such as the construction of roads and tunnels in North Korean cities. Breuker explains that there is also a smaller group of about 180,000 men that could certainly mean something on the battlefield. They are trained as elite soldiers or commandos.

“They can infiltrate and are trained in asymmetric warfare within a larger war. These are the men you don’t want to find facing you on the battlefield,” said Breuker. This is also not the first time they have been used in a foreign conflict. In the last few years they mostly fought in Syria on the side of President Assad, but there was also a lot of uncertainty in which regions they were active.

According to Breuker, there are signs that these special forces could be in Russia as well, since the commander who usually leads this group has been seen in Moscow. It is expected that approximately 8,000 North Korean troops will be sent to Russian territory initially.

Former Army Chief Mart de Kruif said News NOS Radio 1 that this fits Putin’s statement. “He says he has some sort of NATO agreement with North Korea, that if either country is attacked, they will help each other. That is more of a defense commitment than an offensive use.” For Putin, he believes, this is the way to sell the involvement of North Korean troops.

But De Kruif believes that the use of the North Koreans will not immediately change the course of the war. The numbers are too small for that and in the end the majority do not have enough experience in war.

“You should know that there are 600,000 Russians deployed on the front line, as well as 10,000 North Koreans who have little combat experience.” According to De Kruif, the Russians are losing another 1,200 people every a day because they are killed or seriously injured. “Then 10,000 is not much, it will not make a difference,” says De Kruif.

Pyongyang seems to be the biggest beneficiary of this NATO-like deal, as De Kruif calls it. North Korea receives $2,000 per person per month to send its soldiers into Russia. “They are getting more money, oil and gas. This agreement will give life to the domestic economy.”

And also important, says Breuker, that the soldiers who are not trained now get more war experience. North Korea is asserting itself internationally and at the same time asserting its own power.

There are concerns, especially in South Korea, about the growing military strength of its neighbors in the North. That is why they are now even considering joining the war and supporting Ukraine. It is officially forbidden in South Korea to give weapons to countries in time of war, but there is now talk of lifting these restrictions.

If it gets to that point, it won’t be good for the Russians, Breuker thinks. “The South Korean army is one of the most advanced forces in the world with the latest weapon systems, about 500,000 soldiers and about 3.5 million reservists.”

The Kyiv Independent wrote this week that South Korea has not yet decided on providing arms and weapons to Ukraine. But South Korean media reports that the government wants to send people to observe the movements of North Korean soldiers. This means that a possible proxy war on European soil does not seem to be a reality, at least for now.