Increase in nuclear weapons production capacity, possibility of 7th nuclear test raised, no movement in North Korea nuclear test… Low probability in the short term
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that North Korea appears to have begun commissioning a new experimental light water reactor (ELWR) at the Yongbyon nuclear facility, raising expectations that North Korea’s nuclear weapons production capacity will increase significantly when the Yongbyon light water reactor is fully operational. There are observations that mass production of nuclear weapons could lead to a seventh nuclear test, but it has been determined that there has been no movement by North Korea regarding the nuclear test yet. ▲ Koreas Tensions
Rafael Grossi, Secretary-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). AP Newsis Earlier, IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said in a statement on the 21st (local time), “A large amount of drainage has been observed in the light water reactor cooling system since mid-October. He commented, “It coincides with the ‘commissioning’ of the light water reactor (the first test run of the nuclear reactor in which the nuclear fuel is blacked out and the output is increased while conducting various tests).”
Accordingly, Oli Heinonen, a special researcher at the Stimson Center and former IAEA Deputy Secretary-General, said in an interview with the Voice of America (VOA) on the 25th, “If North Korea fully restarts the Yongbyon Light Water Reactor, in theory it will be able to produce 15 to 20 kg of plutonium per year.” He said. He explained, “This is an amount that can produce 3 to 4 times more plutonium than the existing 5 megawatt (MW) reactor, greatly increasing production capacity.” He predicted that the experimental light-water reactor would begin full operation in six months to a year, and that the actual capacity or number of nuclear weapons would increase around 2025.
David Albright, an American nuclear scientist and director of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), said, “The plutonium coming out of the new reactor is enough to make five nuclear weapons a year,” and added, “If plutonium and weapons-grade uranium are combined, it is possible to make 10 nuclear weapons a year.” “There is,” he predicted.
Lim Chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said about North Korea’s light-water reactor test run in a phone call with the Seoul Shinmun on this day, “Chairman Kim Jong-un’s policy is to increase nuclear weapons exponentially by mobilizing all means. “This is an operation to support this,” he analyzed. He continued, “Nuclear tests are necessary to create more powerful nuclear weapons than before. “The next step after more nuclear weapons are created is a nuclear test,” he added, adding, “Because the inference about a nuclear test is reasonable, there are even observations that it is imminent.”
Regarding the possibility of a seventh nuclear test, a senior official in the Presidential Office said in a phone call, “There is currently no movement,” and predicted that there will be no nuclear test in the short term. Regarding the increase in North Korea’s plutonium production capacity, “It will take place over a long period of time. “It will take more time,” he predicted.
Reporter Go Hye-ji
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2023-12-25 12:16:07
