North Korea Launches Surprise Space Projectile with Deception Tactics

Early morning launch on the last day of May
Intent to be detected as late as possible
The launch preparation process is also kept secret until the end.
“It could have been postponed due to bad weather on the 1st.”

On the last day of May, North Korea launched a space launch vehicle by surprise. It is different from what Ri Pyong-cheol, the second-in-command in North Korea’s military, and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party of Korea, announced the day before, “We will launch soon in June.” It seems that they used a deception tactic to get caught by our military detection network as late as possible.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 31st, North Korea launched a space projectile toward the south from Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, around 6:29 am. It is the ‘military reconnaissance satellite Unit 1’ that North Korea has been insisting on. North Korea announced to Japan on the 29th that it would launch an artificial satellite between 0:00 on the 31st and 0:00 on the 11th of next month. Japan, as the International Maritime Organization (IMO)’s regional navigation area coordinator, receives notification of satellite launch information and notifies it to the international community.

On the other hand, Vice Chairman Lee revealed the position of ‘launching in June’ in a statement on ‘strengthening self-defense’ announced through the Korean Central News Agency on the 30th. May 31 seemed to be excluded from the options. Regarding this, it was interpreted that it was conscious of the multinational maritime interdiction drill commemorating the 20th anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which will be held on the high seas southeast of Jeju on the 31st. The official position is that PSI training does not target specific countries. However, it is widely known that the training was conducted with North Korea in mind.

In the IMO, “Launching from the 31st to the 11th”… Emphasis on compliance with international rules

It seems that the reason North Korea used deceit over the launch date was because of ‘security’. Jang Yeong-geun, director of the Missile Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, “Usually, other countries notify the IMO and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of a specific time when launching a satellite to prevent damage to ships.” It is unusual to set it up,” he said. In other words, while highlighting the fact that North Korea followed the rules of the international community through the IMO notification, it lowered predictability by widening the range of possible launch dates as much as possible.

Satellite photos taken by Planet Labs PBC captured activity on the newly constructed launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station near Dongchang-ri, North Korea, on the 30th. The Associated Press reported that the satellite images show that North Korea’s projectile launch is imminent. AP Newsis

At the Sohae Satellite Launching Site in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, preparations were carried out secretly until the very end. Voice of America (VOA) analyzed satellite images from Planet Labs, a private satellite company, on the 29th and found that the mobile assembly building and the launch pad were in contact. It is interpreted that this is to prevent the process of assembling the satellite and the launch vehicle and moving it to the launch pad from being caught by reconnaissance satellites.

North Korea originally intended to launch on June 1, but it may have been pushed forward a day due to weather conditions. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, “Usually, the first two days of the notice period can be regarded as the launch date, and the rest can be regarded as preparation days in preparation for an unexpected situation.” Judging by this, it could have been launched on the 31st.” According to the forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration, Shinuiju, which is about 50 km away from the launch site in the West Sea, will have a lot of clouds on June 1, and the probability of precipitation will be about 30%. On the other hand, on the 31st, when the launch was carried out, the weather was clear.

It seems that the characteristics of the situation that North Korea could not postpone the date any longer were also reflected. It is interpreted that the Asian Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) was held in Singapore on June 2-4, and the defense ministers of Korea, the U.S. and Japan were scheduled to strongly condemn North Korea’s provocations, so they responded preemptively.

Yugeun reporter [email protected]