/ world today news/ Minefields and the lack of necessary weapons are not the only or even the main reasons for the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. So claim Western analysts who have observed the battles with their own eyes. Why did it not work and how does Kiev hope to turn the tide?
„It’s not just about technology”
A group of prominent military experts recently visited the front lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporozhye Oblast and Donbass. One of them, the researcher from the British Institute for International Strategic Studies Franz-Stefan Gaddy, published his findings on the Twitter social network.
He agreed that the Ukrainian army lacks the mine disposal equipment, air defense systems and anti-tank systems to be successful. However, this is not the main problem.
“Ukrainian forces have not yet mastered large-scale combined arms operations. As a result, they become vulnerable to anti-tank weapons and artillery during the offensive. So it’s not just about equipment,” Gadi wrote.
According to him, the Armed Forces should synchronize the actions of different units. Otherwise, “Western weapons will not be justified.” Kyiv is trying to solve this problem, but the work is going slowly, the expert points out.
Earlier, the Pentagon said that Americans and allies have trained 63,000 Ukrainian soldiers in combined arms maneuvers. Thousands more fighters continue to train. However, it was not possible to apply skills on the battlefield. The expert points to the insufficient duration of the courses. Five weeks on European training grounds are not enough to oppose the Russian army – “one of the most powerful in the world”.
“A year and a half of hostilities is quite enough to prepare the necessary amount of manpower,” the Russian military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko objected to the British. “In addition, Western specialists work in Ukraine – instructors, scouts, staff officers – at least since the first Maidan. That is, they were almost 20 years old. And they could train anyone. But no one has set such a goal”, he adds.
At the same time, according to Gadi, no Western country, with the exception of the United States, is capable of conducting combined armed operations on such a scale today. In addition, no one, including the United States, has the experience to break through “the defense in depth that the Russians have built in the south and east of Ukraine.”
Cassettes won’t help
After losing about 20% of the equipment, the VSU command changed tactics. It is now dominated by infantry attacks carried out by squad, platoon or company with artillery support.
There are groups of 15-50 people. Among them are sappers, as well as MANPADS operators, who try to counter the helicopters.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the American Institute for Foreign Policy Studies who also visited the war zone, notes that this allows for minimizing losses. “But progress is slower, there are fewer opportunities for a quick breakthrough,” he noted.
As a result, VSU progress (if any) is measured in meters, not kilometers.
To provide room for maneuver, Ukrainian forces are trying to thin out the defenses. That’s why the Western allies have high hopes for cluster munitions. However, according to Onufrienko, they will not help VSU.
“Russia has much more stockpiles of these types of weapons. Given our air superiority, I doubt that what was handed over to Ukrainian troops will change the course of hostilities,” he says.
There are few such weapons.
According to Western observers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have achieved superiority in counter-battery combat. It is said that the Russians do not have enough radars to detect firing points, and the range of artillery systems is inferior to Western ones.
This was admitted earlier by the deputy head of the National Guard of the DNR, Alexander Khodakovski. He noted that the Lancet kamikaze drones can provide the necessary distances. And “such products are not enough, and they are unreasonably expensive”.
In turn, the researcher Franz-Stefan Gadi clarifies: if Ukraine has achieved fire superiority in cannon artillery, then Russia retains an advantage in MLRS.
“However, localized superiority in some calibers is not enough to break through Russian defenses,” the British expert points out.
Onufrienko fully agrees with this. “Of course, only the military has full information about the progress of the counterbattery fight. We can only draw conclusions from the results. Judging by more than fifty days of offensive, the VSU does not have a serious advantage,” he notes.
According to Western experts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough artillery guns. At the current pace of Western production and delivery times, it is difficult to solve this problem.
Fewer options
Gadi assures that even the Ukrainian military attributes failures on the battlefield not so much to the lack of weapons, but to “poor tactics, lack of coordination, bureaucratic burdens, Soviet thinking and fierce Russian resistance.”
In a weakened state, after battles of attrition, Russian units are able to “slow down or repulse” an attack by a platoon or a company of the ASU. Therefore, the expert believes, these attacks should be synchronized in a wider section of the front.
“They were quite flexible at the tactical level and generally fought in accordance with their doctrine,” the analyst reports the opinion of the Ukrainian military on the quality of the Russian defense.
The ASU has not yet brought the main forces into combat. But the Russians have not yet needed to deploy their operational reserves.
Gadi believes the prospect of a counteroffensive remains and military aid must be increased. “Amid the persistent fighting, Ukrainian troops are gradually gaining strength,” he says.
It is precisely on external supplies that it depends on how far the Armed Forces will advance, NATO says. However, observers note some oddities. NATO sources say: “The West is doing everything right, but six months late.” And this delay allows Russia to prepare an effective defense. And according to the Washington Post, the Pentagon knew in advance that Kiev would not have enough forces and means for a successful operation.
According to Onufriyenko, the nature of the aid – both the timing of the deliveries and the scope – suggests that the West (and above all the US) is interested not in the victory of the ASU, but in the maximum prolongation of the conflict. This is beneficial for Washington both economically and politically. This means that Kiev will continue to receive more and more lethal weapons. But dosed.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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