A student holds a placard reading ‘never again’ during a protest rally and nationwide 24-hour strike following a deadly train crash, in Athens, on Thursday. [George Vitsaras/EPA]
The political landscape reflected in public opinion polls almost three weeks after the rail tragedy at Tempe is causing a commotion in the ranks of the country’s political parties, as “nobody” has gained popularity among the burgeoning section of undecided voters: They shot up to 12.5% in the latest survey conducted by Pulse for Skai, from 9.5% just a month earlier.
It is widely understood that the jump in undecided voters is largely due to flagging support from core supporters of governing New Democracy from 32% to 28.5%. This, however, has not meant gains for the main leftist opposition Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), which remains steady at 25%, and certainly not for socialist PASOK, which slipped from 10.5% to 9.5%.
As such, what undecided voters do on the day will determine the outcome more than ever before. This is even more so given that the latest opinion polls show that the Tempe tragedy has not substantially contributed to an anti-systemic wave of planned abstentions or blank or invalid ballots (up by a marginal 0.5%).
ND’s moves
At New Democracy and SYRIZA, the glass following the first round of polls after the train crash may be regarded as half-empty or half-full. As far as the ruling conservatives are concerned, the realistic scenario over the next few weeks foresees around 1.5-2.5% of newly disenchanted supporters returning to the fold, thus allowing ND to aim for single-party rule. Three factors are crucial in this respect: first, that it regains the initiative after paying the price for widespread speculation over whether the elections would take place on April 9 or later. Second, the party needs to clarify whether the former transport minister who resigned over the crash, Kostas A. Karamanlis, will be on ND’s ballot or not. The ongoing debate about the issue is not doing the party any favors. Last but not least, ND needs to adapt its pre-election campaign in light of the most recent developments. The Prime Minister’s Office had planned to put the economy and the commitment for “better wages” at the forefront of Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ platform, but it is now obvious that the political parties’ stance toward the state will be the dominant issue.
At the same time, ND will need to find a way to balance some of its losses by drawing voters from PASOK who do not want to see SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras as prime minister again, while also being mindful of preventing the entry into Parliament of a seventh party (beyond the existing six, including far-left MeRA25), as this would render the goal of a single-party government in the second round of voting practically untenable.
A new political landscape has also emerged for the main leftist opposition, with SYRIZA cadres banking heavily on the fact that public reaction to the crash appears to be focused on the government and not distributed among the other systemic parties, and particularly SYRIZA. In this sense, even though the leftist party continues to lag ND, it may be looking at a window of opportunity: As the difference between the two parties narrows, the conditions may be ripe to draw in voters from other parties on the same side of the spectrum.
The key here is the response to the question of who respondents think will win the election: In this crucial polling index, ND continues to enjoy a significant lead of 48% over SYRIZA’s 27%, according to Pulse, though this is a drop of 10 percentage points for the governing party from a month earlier, when expectations that it would win stood at 58%. If this trend continues, SYRIZA hopes to draw support not just from the pool of undecided voters, but also from PASOK, the Greek Communist Party (KKE) and MeRA25 by acting as the main proponent of the push for “political change” through the ballot box.
Dates and partnerships
With regard to the timing of the elections, people close to the prime minister say that Mitsotakis has reached a decision. The first round of voting with the simple proportional system is therefore expected to take place on May 21 or 28, and the second, with the enhanced majority – in the event that the first round is not decisive – on July 2. This will ensure that the electoral process does not interfere with national university exams. The same sources reject the likelihood of elections in the middle of the summer but add that an announcement from the prime minister himself should not be expected soon.
It is considered customary for the date of the election to be announced at the same time as the dissolution of Parliament.
It must be noted, lastly, that ND’s slide in public opinion polls has revived discussions about the possible coalitions that could be formed in the event of an indefinite election. Mitsotakis has stated that if ND cannot form a government on its own, he is open to a coalition with PASOK after the second round of voting. What is effectively being discussed is something similar to the Antonis Samaras-Evangelos Venizelos power-sharing arrangement, with Mitsotakis as prime minister and PASOK’s Nikos Androulakis as deputy prime minister. What is being dismissed is a government in the style of the one headed by Lucas Papademos, with an outsider serving as PM, or a Tzannis Tzanetakis-style arrangement, with someone else from ND at its head.
Given that Androulakis has expressed his opposition to joining a government headed by Mitsotakis or by Tsipras, the likelihood of an agreement is slim, and especially if PASOK comes out of the process weakened, whereby a third round of voting will have to be held.
