Now there is a lot of talk about electric cars in the Norwegian car market. We are approaching the 80% share of electric cars, while petrol and diesel-engined cars are hardly sold anymore.
This development has been rapid. We won’t go back many years before electric cars were small, weird, and could only travel a few miles. While a diesel car was the obvious choice for most of us.
The Road Traffic Information Office (UFV) has just presented the report “The changing car and parking”, with the subtitle “From petrol and diesel cars to electric cars for everyone”. They did this this morning during a breakfast seminar in Oslo.
Diesel cars went by
OFV took a closer look at the development from 2000 to 2022. And a lot has happened here!
The Norwegian car fleet, for example, has grown by around one million cars.
In 2000, no more than 9% of all new cars were diesel cars. But things would soon change. Tax changes have made diesel cars more favorable since January 1, 2007. This year, diesel cars also overtook petrol cars in sales statistics for the first time.
The peak year for diesel-engined cars was 2011. Back then, this type of car accounted for more than 75% of total car sales. Not much different from the position of electric cars today.
2011 Car Test: Guess what was under the hood
1.1 million diesel cars
Then the decline began. At first carefully, then in recent years it has slowed down significantly.
PETROL: The Volvo V70 Cross Country was a dream car for many in 2000. And it had a petrol engine under the hood.
But even if diesel cars now seem to be practically sold out on the new car market, there is clearly the majority of cars with diesel engines on Norwegian roads.
Data from the OFV shows that there are now around 1.1 million diesel cars in this country. The number of petrol cars is around 820,000. What about electric cars? There are about 545,000 of them.
Here, diesel cars have just walked through the door before they are sold
More wrecks
It is especially petrol cars that have declined over the last 20 years. Since 2003 the quota has been halved. According to OFV, petrol cars have the highest median age and a further sharp decline in numbers is expected.
The number of diesel cars has also started to decline, since 2017 the stock has decreased by more than 130,000 cars. It’s not surprising with the sales development that we’ve seen. Every year many more diesel cars are scrapped than new ones entering the market.
But the volume is therefore high, which also means that diesel cars will form a significant part of the used car market in Norway for many years to come.
Predicted the death of diesel cars
Last year, diesel cars accounted for 42.4% of total ownership changes. 28.8 percent were petrol cars, 17.0 percent were electric, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids combined accounted for 11.7 percent.
OUTGOING: Far more petrol and diesel cars are now scrapped than new ones on the way. As a result, the stock is declining year on year.
– These are interesting numbers. The second-hand market has a life of its own alongside the new car market. It will likely continue to do so for many years to come. But how that will play out with demand and prices is hard to say, says Broom auto expert Benny Christensen.
– Have many predicted the death of diesel cars, even on the used market?
– This is correct and has so far turned out not to be true. What we have seen is that some diesel cars have become harder to sell and have suffered significant loss in value. While other models are still easily marketable and well priced. The market has become more fragmented, says Benny.
– Now we are seeing the beginning of the death of diesel cars
It has gone up in price
To some extent, the price picture for used diesel cars has probably benefited from the fact that new car sales have been so low. Few new used cars entered the market.
– We see that a good number of diesel-powered SUVs are fine. Some station wagons do the same. While small to midsize cars and models are typically 13 out of a dozen, it’s gotten more and more difficult. Especially in the last year, the demand for used electric cars has skyrocketed. Many models have simply gone up in price, which is pretty unusual on the used market, says Benny.
NAF reports a bonanza for used electric cars
Only zero emission cars
– Can we expect some sort of tipping point, where diesel cars will come down a lot in price?
MAJORITY: There are still most diesel and petrol cars on the used market. But electric cars are taking off strongly.
– Again, I think it’s hard to predict. But at some point we will probably get to the point where the vast majority will also want an electric car when buying a used car and that diesel cars will be perceived as obsolete. It also depends a lot on what the politicians come up with. If they make it more expensive and more complicated to drive a diesel car, for example in cities, it can affect the market a lot, Benny says.
Norwegian politicians have long said what they want for the new car market. Is that from 2025 only zero-emission cars will be sold. Now we are on the right track.
Electric SUV
In 2000, the “people’s car” was usually a station wagon with a petrol engine.
When diesel sales peaked in 2011, it was a diesel-engined station wagon or SUV and most preferably a 4×4. If it also had automatic transmission, happiness was complete.
In 2022, the picture is different again. We now choose an electric SUV in the family car class. It has 4×4 and a range of about 500 kilometers. The automatic transmission is obligatory and even the budget versions have equipment that was completely unimaginable 22 years ago.
Sold well for a number of years but is now disappearing from Norway
This case was first published on Broom.n.
