Has the imminent prospect of a vaccine put to sleep the enthusiasm of the population to protect themselves from COVID-19? If we are to believe the upward curves that are making a comeback in Quebec and Canada, it seems so. The wear and tear of time, exasperation and the vicious comfort of habit should not, however, lower the guard of citizens, who in large majority will not have access to the vaccine for several long months. The hour is still serious, even if our level of alert is numb.
The needle for the number of infections, hospitalizations and intensive care stays continues to be the severity slider that will decide how we look in the coming weeks. Reconfin? Will not re-confine? The recent upward trend in all of these statistics prompted Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr.re Theresa Tam, that the “risky period” of the holiday season could cause the daily number of cases in Canada to jump to 12,000 in January. West of
the Atlantic, everywhere the curve of hospitalizations is galloping upwards. Quebec recorded nearly 2,000 new cases on Sunday, and 880 hospitalizations while 123 people ended up in intensive care, a very grim picture.
It is around the observation of this last data that the alarm signal is still found, ten months later, which will decide the next step: probable closure of shops and businesses, re-containment of students, pause. of the Quebec economy, while the contagion levels subside. Sweden, named first as the model country and then gradually as the example not to follow, sounded the alarm last week precisely because its capital, Sto-ckholm, had reached 99% of occupancy of its beds in intensive care, literally an indication of a passage in a disaster situation.
One need only remember Italy’s desperate tribulations last spring, when the capacity of hospitals failed to absorb the tragic escalation in the number of cases. The country then had to make the selection of priority cases, to the detriment of patients left on their own, without help, dying at home. At the same time, Quebec was quietly taming the very idea of a pandemic and jumping from one foot to the other on the concept of wearing a mask, which the authorities did not yet dare to recommend. Let us say it: we were then very poor in terms of knowledge about this destructive virus, which is no longer the case.
Should the holiday season serve as the perfect back-to-back activity to slow the spread of COVID-19? Quebec should remember the painful episode of the school break at the start of 2020 which, with hindsight, turned out to be the perfect cocktail to encourage contagion, particularly due to the many trips abroad. This disastrous experience cannot be concealed when deciding what to do next. The holiday season is one to seize.
It is again a real puzzle that the government of François Legault must solve, whose governance decisions must take into account the morale of the troops, the economic health and the strike force of the health network, this last indicator. always prevailing over the previous two. This fragile balance has given rise to some mistakes, in particular this hasty decision to dangle a semblance of normality for the holiday break. We must announce this week the final directive for this crucial period, but it’s a safe bet that Quebec will again be put on hiatus for a full month, in order to breathe new life into hospitals.
Statistics show that schools and workplaces have the greatest number of outbreaks. The shutdown of all activity involving social contacts during the holiday break – a practice adopted in several European countries, also struggling with a strong second wave – seems inevitable. The directive must be consistent and affect all places likely to be associated with outbreaks of contagion – shops, supermarkets, etc. – and not just restaurants and cultural places, which have been sacrificed even if they are very little associated with contagious peaks. This new intermission may be wrong, when a little balm to the soul would have been welcome, but it seems a necessary evil to avoid the worst.
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