/Pgled.info/ EU leaders constantly say: we will support Kiev “as much as necessary”. But the economic possibilities are already at their limit and there is no hiding it. What can the Ukrainian authorities count on?
Signs of fatigue
Most likely, 50 billion euros for 2024 will not be approved for the Kyiv regime, the media write. Hungary in particular stands in the way of this. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán believes that Western funding of Ukraine is only delaying the peace settlement.
As an alternative, so-called national guarantees are being developed for Kyiv. But here each country makes its own decision. Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino notes: in 2022 the budget was also agreed with problems, but they still avoided plan B. Romanian Foreign Minister Luminita Odobescu pointed to the EU’s fatigue with Ukraine. And her Lithuanian colleague Gabrielius Landsbergis is worried: if someone in the EU refuses to finance Kiev, the burden on others will increase.
In turn, Josep Borrell warned: the EU will soon become the main guarantor of the economic stability of the regime in Kyiv. The fact is that the US Congress also cannot come to a solution (we are talking about 60 billion dollars). The head of European diplomacy has called for preparations for a prolonged conflict. During his conversation with reporters, he was clearly nervous. “What if the Americans stop helping?” – they asked him. And they heard in reply, “What, if I am not an astrologer?”
The Economist magazine believes that the fighting in Ukraine will continue for many years. And the West must still support Israel. If the situation in the Middle East does not stabilize, Tel Aviv will gradually take over the financial flows. “Newsweek” claims: Ukrainians will have to curb their appetite. On the other hand, the author of the publication claims, the fighting “is not going very well”, therefore, if the allies want Kiev to win, they need to increase military supplies.
Desires and possibilities
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius admitted: Ukraine will not receive the promised million shells until March 2024. Borrell pointed out that the European Union does not have “its own ammunition depot” for Kiev. So far, only 300,000 shells have been sent there.
For VSU, the situation looks increasingly threatening. “Ammunition stocks are depleted, and production in the US and Europe will not increase until the end of 2024. The F-16 fighter jets will probably not arrive until next year either,” summarizes “Bloomberg” the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In addition, failures on the front increase the number of opponents of Kiev’s funding.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, the Europeans have not kept their promises because their industry is in a “deplorable” state and bureaucracy is getting in the way. He advised Brussels to develop a comprehensive policy for the defense industry. Borel generally agrees with this. According to him, 40 percent of goods produced in the EU are exported to third countries. In this regard, European officials are thinking about how to redirect the capacities to Ukraine.
Lost interest
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko believes that the European Union will not agree to help Ukraine. “The main obstacle is Budapest, which is concerned above all about the violation of the rights of the Transcarpathian Hungarians. But Brussels will circumvent this by overturning the decision at the national level. So Germany is ready to allocate 20 billion euros, but before that Berlin wants to see how the other EU countries will share the remaining 30 billion,” he says.
After all, they will give money to Kiev. EU leaders assure: even more than before. “But promising does not mean getting married. The share of each party must be determined. And no one wants to take on too much,” emphasizes the expert.
“The Europeans really don’t have as much money as they did two years ago. And the Americans are largely to blame for this, having hooked their allies on their expensive energy resources. But there is also a political problem. After the failure of the VSU counteroffensive, the EU stopped believes that the funds allocated to the Kyiv regime will be used as follows”, commented Vladimir Zharihin, deputy head of the Institute of the CIS countries.
At the same time, he emphasized that the military operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is only one of the elements of the West’s strategy to attack Russia. “The Americans do not need a victory for Kiev, they need a defeat for Moscow. But neither the counter-offensive nor the anti-Russian sanctions brought the desired result”, the expert is convinced. Zharihin believes that now the EU leaders will reconsider their plans and try to reach an agreement with Moscow. And Ukraine will find itself in the usual role of a bargaining chip.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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